Ranking Western Conference Clubs by Their Strength of Remaining Schedule - LSC's POV
USL Lexington Sporting Club

Ranking Western Conference Clubs by Their Strength of Remaining Schedule - LSC's POV

Published on September 16, 2025 under United Soccer League Championship (USL)
Lexington Sporting Club News Release


This one is for the statheads.

Your friendly neighborhood Lexington SC is back to shine a light on a very convoluted Western Conference playoff picture.

Long story short, things are still incredibly tight in the West. Heading into Week 29, only four points separate third place from ninth. In the middle of it all is Lexington, currently sitting in sixth place with 32 points

It is likely that clubs will continue to rotate in and out of playoff position over the coming weeks, despite possibly only being separated by one point (or even being tied on points, in which goal differential in head-to-head matchups becomes the first tiebreaker).

Lexington is still in firm control of its own destiny. If it wins, it's in. But with so much flip-flopping happening weekly, we decided to dive into the strength of schedule for the seven clubs within four points of one another in the West to perhaps provide some insight into how things might shake out.

For the sake of ease, we will refer to these seven clubs simply as The Seven (New Mexico United, San Antonio FC, El Paso Locomotive FC, Lexington SC, Phoenix Rising FC, Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC and Orange County SC).

How We Did It

To determine each club's remaining strength of schedule, we primarily based our calculations off win percentage and used the following formula:

Win % = ((0.33 x D) + W) / Matches Played

D = Draws

W = Wins

Since draws are worth one-third of the points of a win in the standings, we counted them as "0.33 wins" in our formula.

After calculating the win percentage of every USL Championship club, we then looked at who each of The Seven has left to play in 2025, added each opponent's win % together, then divided by the number of matches remaining.

For example, here is LSC's remaining strength of schedule:

Opponent Win %

Detroit City FC 0.443

New Mexico United 0.487

FC Tulsa 0.638

El Paso Locomotive FC 0.463

Sacramento Republic FC 0.550

Oakland Roots SC 0.362

Strength of schedule: 0.489

Now then, here is the remaining strength of schedule for The Seven in order from easiest schedule to hardest, based on opponents win %.

1. New Mexico United

Remaining schedule:

Monterey Bay FC

Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC

Lexington SC

Phoenix Rising FC

Orange County SC

Oakland Roots SC

Rhode Island FC

Strength of schedule: 0.402

New Mexico does not have a match left against a current top-five club in either conference, and three of its opponents are not currently in playoff position (Monterey Bay, Orange County, Oakland).

2. San Antonio FC

Remaining schedule:

Orange County SC

Birmingham Legion FC

Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC

FC Tulsa

Orange County SC

Phoenix Rising FC

El Paso Locomotive FC

Strength of Schedule: 0.4533

Five of San Antonio's remaining seven matches this season are against The Seven. The Texas side's results might well dictate the playing field, and it is a club worth paying attention to through the last six weeks of the season.

3. Phoenix Rising FC

Remaining schedule:

Loudoun United FC

Oakland Roots SC

New Mexico United

North Carolina FC

San Antonio FC

Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC

Strength of Schedule: 0.4635

Three Eastern Conference opponents remain on the docket for Phoenix, potentially limiting the chaos its results inflict on the rest of the West.

4. Lexington SC

Remaining schedule:

Detroit City FC

New Mexico United

FC Tulsa

El Paso Locomotive FC

Sacramento Republic FC

Oakland Roots SC

Strength of schedule: 0.4890

Five clubs currently sit above LSC in the standings - Lexington will play four of them before the season's end. There is plenty of opportunity to pick up points while also leapfrogging New Mexico, El Paso and Sacramento with positive results.

Its other two matches come against its sixth-place counterpart in the East, Detroit City FC, and Oakland Roots SC who currently occupies the 10th spot in the West.

5. El Paso Locomotive FC

Remaining schedule:

Charleston Battery

Rhode Island FC

Oakland Roots SC

Orange County SC

Lexington SC

FC Tulsa

San Antonio FC

Strength of schedule: 0.4916

Several tough matchups await El Paso in the form of first-place Tulsa and second-place Charleston, the latter of which is one of only two clubs to have secured a playoff spot already. Luckily for Locomotive FC, it gets both of those matches at home.

6. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC

Remaining schedule:

Sacramento Republic FC

New Mexico United

Hartford Athletic

San Antonio FC

Charleston Battery

Las Vegas Lights FC

FC Tulsa

Strength of schedule: 0.526

Here we cross the 0.500 threshold. Colorado Springs gets to match up with the top four clubs in the West plus Charleston before the season ends.

7. Orange County SC

Remaining schedule:

San Antonio FC

Charleston Battery

Sacramento Republic FC

El Paso Locomotive FC

New Mexico United

San Antonio FC

Louisville City FC

Indy Eleven

Strength of schedule: 0.538

Orange County still has to face off against the top two clubs in the East and four of the top five clubs in the West (including San Antonio twice) over its final eight outings, the most matches left to play by any USL Championship club. Sounds like fun.

Check out the Lexington Sporting Club Statistics

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United Soccer League Championship Stories from September 16, 2025


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