The Playoff Scenario in 2,386 Words or Less

July 22, 2004 - arenafootball2 (af2)
Quad City Steamwheelers News Release


You would think that this would get easier as the weeks go, but it just gets more interesting. Below are all of the possibilities of what could happen in the final two weeks of the season. Again, this is easier to read in the attached file. Next week's will be much easier and much more clear. Enjoy this one.

Another week in the books, and the playoff picture becomes slightly clearer. Again, just as last week, these are nothing more than probabilities, but things are more certain than they were a week ago.

Also, these probabilities are based on the fact that Tulsa (11-3, game and a half lead in the Southwest Division) and Bakersfield (10-4, two game lead in West Division) will both win their divisions.

Three teams clinched playoff berths this past weekend, leaving three spots still open. Tulsa, Oklahoma City (10-5) and Bakersfield have all locked up spots for the playoffs. One of the remaining spots is an automatic berth to the winner of the Midwest Division. The other two spots are fair game for five other teams.

The easiest and best possibility is for the Quad City Steamwheelers to win. Steamwheelers win, they are the Midwest Division champs, will be seeded more than likely number three and host a first round playoff game against the sixth seed (currently Peoria is the sixth seed).

Below is what the playoff picture would look like if the playoffs started today:

1. Tulsa 11-3

2. Bakersfield 10-4

3. Quad City 9-6

4. Oklahoma City 10-5

5. Louisville 8-6

6. Peoria 8-6

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7. Hawaii 8-6

8. San Diego 7-7

9. Wichita 7-7

Tulsa, Bakersfield and Quad City receive the top seeds as the winner of their divisions. Louisville holds the tiebreaker over Peoria and Hawaii by strength of schedule. Hawaii and Louisville have played, but Peoria and Hawaii have not, moving to the next step – common opponents – which none of the three have. Then it's strength of schedule (total number of opponents wins) which Louisville's opponents total 114 wins (to date) compared to Peoria's 108 wins and Hawaii's 98 wins. (Granted all of this could change in one week). San Diego holds the tiebreaker over Wichita on won-loss percentage against common opponents. The two teams have not played, moving to the best won-loss percentage against common opponents. They have both played Green Bay and Quad City. Wichita lost against Quad City (73-39) and won against Green Bay (68-53) making them 1-1 (.500) against common opponents. San Diego defeated Quad City (62-52) and split with Green Bay (lost 67-49 and won 50-34), giving them a 2-1 (.667) record against common opponents.

But unfortunately the season does not end today and there are two weeks left in the season. The one scenario that is figured out, is that if Quad City wins, they are in. No question. With Louisville sitting at 8-6 now, another loss would drop them to 9-7. A Quad City win improves them to 10-6. Peoria is at 8-6 now and could win their final two games to tie with Quad City for the division, but Quad City holds the tiebreaker over Peoria. Quad City and Peoria played twice this season, and split both games. Quad City won 47-20 at Peoria and Peoria won 29-13 at Quad City. The second tiebreaker for two teams is point differential in the games. Quad City won by 27, Peoria by 16 – Quad City wins tiebreaker. The Louisville loss at Hawaii this past weekend eliminated a potential three-way tie at 10-6, which Peoria would have won on tiebreakers (explained below if the three were to finish at 9-7).

With that in mind, the fun really begins. IF Quad City were to in fact lose to Louisville and finish the season at 9-7, below is what COULD happen:

- Louisville would then, at worst finish with a 9-7 record, or at best a 10-6 record. If Louisville finishes with a 10-6 record, Peoria would be the only team that could tie them. That would give the division to Peoria as the two teams have played with Peoria winning both of them. Louisville would make it in at 10-6, as the win over Quad City would leave only three teams (Oklahoma City, Louisville and Hawaii) the only teams to finish at 10-6, meaning the Steamwheelers would not make it if all three of those teams finish 10-6. Oklahoma City (10-5) has already locked a spot up and could finish no worse than 10-6, in this scenario Louisville would be 10-6 and Hawaii (8-6) would have to go 2-0 at Central Valley (1-13) and at Bakersfield (10-4).

- If Louisville finishes with a 9-7 record (in this scenario, Quad City would be 9-7) then Peoria could win the division by winning their final two games at Birmingham (9-5; 7-0 at home) and against Green Bay (5-9), and would have a 10-6 record, OR by finishing 9-7 tied with Quad City and Louisville (which Peoria owns the tiebreaker with a 3-1 record against Louisville (2-2) and Quad City (1-3). That puts four teams in the playoffs (Oklahoma City is already in), leaving two spots open for five teams. If the remaining teams — Louisville, Quad City, Hawaii, Wichita and San Diego — were to finish with 9-7 records, it would shake down like this:

- Five way tie: None have played each other, therefore it goes to win-loss percentage against common opponents, which there are none. Next is strength of schedule, which Quad City currently leads with 119 opponent wins (Wichita is second with 117 opponent wins, then Louisville with 108, Hawaii with 98 and San Diego 97), giving them the fifth spot (again, all of this could change based on what teams do in the final two weeks of the season). The remaining four teams would then revert back to step one – record against other teams – to decide who would get the final spot.

- Four way ties (all based on the team not included finishing the season at 8-8 or worse). Also if the team that is not in these lists finishes with 10 wins (earns automatic berth with 10 wins), then everything is dropped a seed lower (i.e. the team that won the fifth seed would be the sixth seed and the team that was the sixth seed would not make the playoffs):

- Quad City, Louisville, Wichita, Hawaii — Not all four teams have played each other and none have any common opponents. Quad City wins tiebreaker and fifth seed with 119 strength of schedule (SOS) wins. After reverting back to the first step the teams would end up at SOS. Wichita would be the sixth with 117 SOS wins with Louisville (108) and Hawaii (98) just missing the playoffs.

- Quad City, Louisville, Hawaii and San Diego — Not all four teams have played each other and none have any common opponents. Quad City wins tiebreaker and fifth seed with 119 SOS wins. After reverting back to the first step the teams would end up at SOS. Louisville would be sixth with 108. Hawaii (98) and San Diego would just miss the playoffs.

- Quad City, Wichita, San Diego, Louisville — Same as above. Quad City wins with 119 SOS wins and is fifth seed. The teams would then revert back to step one. Not all three have played each other, therefore going to step two. The common opponent is Green Bay. Here is where it gets interesting because Louisville hosts Green Bay this weekend. If they win, that would give them a 2-0 record against the Blizzard. If they lose, obviously a loss would drop them to 1-1 giving the tiebreaker to Wichita (1-0 vs. Green Bay). IF they win, they would still be tied with Wichita (1-0 vs. Green Bay) but not San Diego (1-1 vs. Green Bay). (Remember that the tiebreaker is win-loss percentage, not record). The two teams would then revert back to step one of the two-club tiebreaking format. They have not played each other, skipping right to common opponents, who are Green Bay, Peoria, and Quad City). Wichita (3-1 vs. those teams) would win the tiebreaker over Louisville (3-3 with win over Green Bay included).

- Quad City, Hawaii, Wichita, San Diego — Not all four teams have played each other and none have any common opponents. Quad City wins tiebreaker and fifth seed with 119 SOS wins. The remaining three teams would revert back to step one. None of the teams have played each other and have no common opponents going then to SOS. Wichita (117) would be the sixth seed with Hawaii (97) and San Diego (97) just missing the playoffs.

- Three way ties (again assuming that the other two teams finish 8-8 or worse, Quad City is the only team that cannot finish at 8-8 or worse with a 9-6 record entering their final game). Also if one of the teams that is not in these lists finishes with 10 wins (earns automatic berth with 10 wins), then everything is dropped a seed lower (i.e. the team that won the fifth seed would be the sixth seed and the team that was the sixth seed would not make the playoffs). If two of the teams finish with 10 wins, none of the remaining three would qualify for the playoffs because you would have your three division winners occupying the first three spots, Oklahoma City is already in with 10 wins occupying the fourth spot and if two more teams win 10 games, that would occupy spots five and six. Only Quad City, Peoria, Louisville and Hawaii have a chance to finish with 10 wins:

- Quad City, Louisville, Hawaii — None of the teams have played each other and don't have any common opponents moving to SOS. Quad City wins fifth seed with 119 SOS wins. Louisville and Hawaii go to step one of the two-team tiebreaker. The two teams have played twice with both teams winning a game a piece. Hawaii would win the tiebreaker because they beat Louisville by three and only lost by two.

- Quad City, Hawaii, San Diego — None have played each other and there are no common opponents. Quad City wins fifth seed with 119 SOS wins. Hawaii and San Diego have played four times and split. San Diego would win the tiebreaker as they beat Hawaii by 14 and five and only lost by three and one.

- Quad City, San Diego and Wichita — All three teams have not played each other but do have a common opponent in Green Bay. Quad City and San Diego both are undefeated against Green Bay while San Diego split with the Blizzard, dropping them out. Quad City and Wichita would then move to step one of the two-team tiebreaker. The two teams have played once with Quad City winning. Quad City would be the fifth seed and Wichita the sixth.

- Quad City, Louisville, San Diego — All three teams have not played each other, but have a common opponent in Green Bay. Quad City is 2-0 and in order for Louisville to finish 9-7 they would have to lose to Green Bay giving them a 1-1 record against the Blizzard. San Diego is 1-1 giving the Steamwheelers the fifth seed. Louisville and San Diego would revert to step one of the two-team tiebreaker. They have not played, but do have three common opponents – Green Bay, Quad City and Hawaii. Again Louisville would have to split with Green Bay to be in this situation, therefore their record against the three teams would be 4-2 compared to San Diego's record of 4-3. Louisville wins sixth seed because it is win-loss percentage.

- Quad City, Louisville, Wichita — All three teams have not played each other, but do have two common opponents – Green Bay and Peoria. Wichita is 3-0 and would win the fifth seed as Quad City is 3-1 and Louisville would have to be 1-3. Quad City and Louisville would revert to step one of the two-team tiebreaker. The two teams would have met twice and in this scenario, Louisville would have won both, giving them the sixth seed and Quad City just missing the playoffs.

- Quad City, Hawaii, Wichita — All three teams have not played each other and do not have any common opponents. Quad City wins SOS with 119 opponent wins. Hawaii and Wichita have not played each other and do not have any common opponents, therefore Hawaii wins with SOS with 98 opponent wins compared to Wichita's 97 opponent wins.



- Two way ties (again with the same criteria as above):

- Quad City and Louisville — In this scenario, Louisville would have won both games, giving them the tiebreaker

- Quad City and Hawaii — The two teams have not played, but have two common opponents – Louisville and San Diego. Hawaii is 3-3 vs. those teams, while Quad City is 0-3 (in this scenario losing twice to Louisville) giving Hawaii the tiebreaker.

- Quad City and San Diego — The two teams have played once and San Diego won, giving them the tiebreaker.

- Quad City and Wichita — The two teams have played once and Quad City won, giving Quad City the tiebreaker.

The plan to get into the playoffs is easy – win 10 games. If Quad City doesn't, then it gets complicated. Below is this weekend's game of importance to the Steamwheelers and what they would like to happen:

Friday, July 23

- Manchester @ Albany – Quad City needs Manchester to win to help their strength of schedule (SOS)

- Tennessee Valley @ Bossier City – Quad City needs Tennessee Valley to win to help their SOS

Saturday, July 24

- Wilkes-Barre/Scranton @ Cape Fear – In a battle of #1 vs. #2, the Steamwheelers need #1 Wilkes-Barre/Scranton to pull off the road win to help their SOS

- Green Bay @ Louisville – Quad City needs Green Bay to win to 1. Help their SOS and 2. Allow Louisville to finish with no better than a 9-7 record

- Wichita @ Laredo – A Wichita win would help the Steamwheelers SOS, but at 7-7, a Wichita loss all but eliminates them from playoff contention

- Peoria @ Birmingham – Quad City needs Birmingham to stay undefeated at home with a win over Peoria. A Peoria loss means that the best they could finish is 9-7.

- Bakersfield @ San Diego – A San Diego win would help the Steamwheelers SOS, but at 7-7, a San Diego loss all but eliminates them from playoff contention

- Hawaii @ Central Valley – Quad City needs Central Valley to pick up their second win of the season. A Hawaii loss means the best they could finish is 9-7.



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