USL League One Final Match Preview: 11/17 vs. Spokane Velocity FC

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Union Omaha

USL League One Final Match Preview: 11/17 vs. Spokane Velocity FC

November 15, 2024 - United Soccer League One (USL1)
Union Omaha News Release


No matter what, history will be made on Sunday. Either Union Omaha will become the first team to two USL League One titles, or Spokane will become the first expansion team to win one in their inaugural season.

The Players' Shield winners in Omaha come into the match on a high. There was skepticism as to their recent form being propped up by comeback wins against lower-table teams, but a downright dominant showing against Greenville proved their mettle. Spokane, on the other hand, tailspun into the playoffs with a seven-match winless run before snatching the souls of NoCo and Madison in two very different ways (more on that later). Both clubs can lay claim to a "proving the doubters wrong" mentality because of this, and with the way both teams are able to get stuck into a match and impose their wills, rest assured it will be a hard-fought final.

For a wonderful tactical look at this match, go read John Morrissey's breakdown on the USL League One site.

ONE MEANS ALL

Union Omaha, Players' Shield winners with the second-best points per match tally in USL League One history, have one All-League First Team selection in Pedro Dolabella, and nobody on the Second Team. In a way, it emphasizes how egalitarian this team can be. Nine players have scored multiple goals in the league, and four have at least five. In League One and USL Jägermeister Cup play, five players have four or more assists. With their three center-back setup, the Owls' wingbacks and central midfielders have to display exceptional workrate. And between playing in three competitions and having their all-time leading goalscorer, the skyscraping Steevan Dos Santos, in and out of the lineup due to injuries, the team has had to tweak their attacking gameplan sometimes on a match-by-match basis.

With all that, the hallmark of the campaign has been consistency. Union Omaha hasn't weathered more than a three-match winless streak in all competitions, and amidst a table that was ridiculously tight for much of the year, they've never sunk below fourth in the table (or below third, from Matchday 4 onward). Combine that with yet another hot streak to close out the season, and this team does feel truly complete.

ABOUT SPOKANE VELOCITY FC

Spokane Velocity have built their team to succeed from the get-go. In Andre Lewis, they have a veteran midfielder to set the tempo on and off the pitch. In Luis Gil, they have a heliocentric star in attack to power them. And in Leigh Veidman, they have a young but well-traveled head coach to helm it all. In this matchup, Velocity won their first-ever fixture against Union Omaha, a 3-2 ding-dong battle in Washington featuring a dramatic 95th minute winner by Javier Martín Gil. In all four matchups this year, the home team has come out on top, though the legs at Werner Park came out to a combined 8-1 scoreline in favor of the Owls.

The aforementioned skid that Spokane were on coming into playoffs did well to obscure their quality. This is a team that underperformed their expected goal (xG) differential by an astonishing, league-leading -15.37 goals. That stems from both sides of the ball, too:

Spokane's GF and GA - 26 and 35

Spokane's xG & xGA - 35.71 and 29.34

Both playoff wins to make it to this point perfectly displayed their ability to win in different ways. Against Northern Colorado, they prodded at the Hailstorm until they found their breakthrough, then savaged them to the tune of a 3-0 victory. The next week in Madison, they made life difficult for the 'Mingos and kept the match on their terms until they could get Brooks Thompson to lead them to glory in the shootout. The point of all this is to say this is the Final. Spokane are a 7-seed and an expansion club, but they are in no uncertain terms a serious threat to win it all.

X-FACTORS

An Owl who's really spread his wings late in the season has been Zeiko Lewis. The Bermudan international forward joined late enough that he missed the preseason, giving him an uphill battle to work his way into the squad. He had shown flashes at times when given a run in the squad, but it wasn't until the second half of the season that he's been able to flourish. His game is often a lot more subtle than those of his counterparts on the frontline, but he's grown into his role as a connector with aplomb. Watch him drift around the pitch for flick-ons and one-twos, or view his goal against Greenville again and note how quickly he sees the situation unfold and darts behind the defense. His 27.5 accurate passes per 90 minutes leads all Omaha attackers, which yields 1.5 chances created per 90. Whether he starts or subs in, he could be crucial in breaking down a stout Spokane defense.

If there's one player most likely to be the catalyst from a playmaking perspective, though, look no further than the flair of Joe Gallardo. His 39 chances created (and 2.4 created per 90) both easily pace the team, and his four league assists don't do justice the number of "hockey assists" and other dangerous situations he's created.

As for Spokane... it almost has to be Luis Gil, right? The MLS veteran and former Owl is at the apex of everything Spokane's done offensively. Gil is the club leader in goals, assists, shots, chances created... heck, he even leads the press effectively, with a team-leading 1.0 instances of possession won in the opponent's third per 90 minutes. Ah yes, and Gil has scored in three of Spokane's four matches against Union Omaha this season.

But let's touch on something mentioned in John Morrissey's tactical preview. One of the keys to Spokane's postseason success has been their ability to not just force opponents out to the flanks, but then contain them from there. Now, recall the way Omaha equalized against Greenville: Joe Gallardo (as was the case many times on the day) had the space and time to pick out Lagos Kunga ahead of him, and putting a dribbler of Kunga's caliber 1v1 versus anyone is a winning strategy. Chances are, Spokane will do everything in their power via Derek Waldeck and Javier Martín Gil to keep that from happening again. It might do for Omaha to try and pin the former back in his own territory, though; Waldeck is tied with Luis Gil for the team lead with 39 chances created on the season.

ANALYTICS CORNER

We turn now to a favorite metric, American Soccer Analysis' Goals Added. While the link explains more, the short of it is that g+ calculates how much each touch of the ball changes their team's chances of scoring and conceding across two possessions.

For instance, Spokane Velocity lead the league in Goals Added via Receiving (so, pass receptions) with 19.10, which shows their penchant for getting into dangerous positions on the counterattack. When it comes to individuals, however, focus on Pedro Dolabella and Steevan Dos Santos with Omaha. The midfielder and striker duo have 1.60 and 1.57 g+ each in g+ via Receiving, good for 3rd and 4th in USL League One, respectively.

Union Omaha, the league's top scorers, are top 3 in every g+ category except Interrupting; this makes sense given their ability to possess the ball and tilt the field towards the opponent's goal, meaning there's less opportunities to begin with for tackles, clearances, etc.

On the other side of the ball, Spokane is second-best in the league in g+ Allowed by Fouling (as in, fouls won and fouls conceded) with 1.30. This makes sense for such a disciplined counter-attacking side to show out well in that metric; Velocity also have the fewest total fouls conceded in the league. Omaha is right behind them with 1.42, which is somewhat shocking given their propensity for fouling and picking up bookings.

Check out the Union Omaha Statistics

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