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The deuce scoop

July 14, 2004 - arenafootball2 (af2) News Release


THE BEST PLAYOFF RACE IN HISTORY: There are three weeks left in the 2004 regular season and only two teams have officially clinched a playoff berth. Not to mention that all six division races remain undecided. The af2 postseason race has never been this tight and over the next three weeks 19 teams will battle for six division titles and 10 remaining playoff spots, meaning just about every game left on the schedule has some postseason implication. Take a look at the numbers through Week 15:
3 Weeks remaining in the regular season
0 Division titles clinched to date
13 Teams still alive for a Division title
3 Teams that can clinch Division titles in Week 16 (TEN, TUL, BAK)
2 Playoff spots clinched to date (CPF, WBS)
10 Playoff spots remaining
19 Teams still mathematically alive for playoffs
6 Teams that can clinch playoff spots in Week 16

WILD CARD RACES: The only thing we know for sure is that either Cape Fear or Wilkes-Barre/Scranton will be a Wild Card team. That means there are still five Wild Card spots up for grabs, and (excluding the current division leaders) there are 14 teams battling for those spots.

AMERICAN CONFERENCE
TEAM RECORD GMS BACK
W-B/Scranton* 10-3 -
Florida^ 8-5 -
Memphis^ 7-6 -
Columbus 6-7 1.0
Manchester 5-8 2.0
Albany 5-8 2.0
Bossier-Shreveport 5-9 2.5

NATIONAL CONFERENCE
TEAM RECORD GMS BACK
Oklahoma City^ 9-5 -
Quad City^ 8-6 -
Wichita^ 7-6 -
Peoria 7-6 -
Hawaii 7-6 -
San Diego 6-7 1.0
Green Bay 5-8 2.0
Rio Grande Valley 5-8 2.0
*Clinched a playoff berth; ^ Would have Wild Card if season ended today

EXPLAINING THE TIEBREAKERS: For those who don't know, here are the af2 tiebreaker rules:

Tiebreaking Procedures

If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division (or conference) are tied with identical won-lost percentages, the following steps will be taken to determine rank.

Two Clubs
1. Head-to-head (best won-lost percentage in games among clubs).
2. If teams split head-to-head games, the next tiebreaker will be the point differential in those two games.
3. Best won-lost percentage in common games, if applicable
4. Strength of schedule (strength up).
5. Best net (total) touchdowns in all games
6. Coin toss

Three or More Clubs
· If two clubs remain tied after a third club is eliminated during any step, tiebreaker reverts to step 1 of the two-club format.
· If one team wins multiple-team tiebreaker to advance to playoff round, remaining teams revert to step 1 of the two-club format.
· All teams must have played head-to-head for step 1 to be utilized in a multiple-team tie.
1. Head-to-head (best won-lost percentage in games among clubs).
2. Best won-lost percentage in common games, if applicable.
3. Strength of schedule (strength up).
4. Best net (total) touchdowns in all games.
5. Coin toss

CURRENT TIES OF IMPORTANCE:

Wikes-Barre/Scranton and Cape Fear: These division rivals share identical 10-3 records, but Cape Fear currently holds the tiebreaker edge. See, these teams met twice so far this season and split the two games. The next step in the two-team tiebreaker is point differential. Cape Fear scored 98 points in the two games while Wilkes-Barre/Scranton managed 97 points, meaning the Wildcats earn the tiebreaker by one point. Thing is, these teams have one more meeting scheduled on July 24. The winner of that game will earn the tiebreaker edge by holding a 2-1 series advantage.

Wichita, Peoria, Hawaii: These three teams all sit 7-6 but if the season ended today, Wichita gets into the playoffs as the final Wild Card team in the conference. Why? Well, the first step in a three or more team tiebreaker is head-to-head. While Wichita and Peoria played each other head-to-head, Hawaii did not play Wichita or Peoria. So, you go to the next step which is best win-lost percentage in common games. Up to this point in the season there isn't one team that all three have played. So you go to the next step, which is strength of schedule with strength up. For strength of schedule you add together the wins of the opponents you've played. The combined total of wins amongst the teams that Wichita has played equals 91, which is higher than Peoria's 84 and Hawaii's 72. So, Wichita is eliminated from the tiebreaker and moves up. Now, tiebreaker rules state that anytime a club is eliminated, tiebreaker reverts back to Step 1 for the remaining tied teams. In this case we have two teams left tied so we go back to Step 1 of the two-team tiebreaker. Peoria and Hawaii did not meet in the regular season for a head-to-head tiebreaker, but they do have a few common opponents: Central Valley, Louisville and Bossier-Shreveport. Peoria went 4-0 against those clubs while Hawaii went 3-2, meaning Peoria gets the edge over Hawaii.

WHEN GLUSKI STARTS, CAPE FEAR WINS: Mike Gluski must love the blue and white jerseys of the Cape Fear Wildcats. In 2002 Gluski started eleven games for the Cape Fear Wildcats. As a starter he was 10-1 with his only loss being by one point, 36-35, to Richmond in a game where he was injured on the final drive of the game as he was moving the Wildcats down the field for a winning score. This injury ended Gluski's season. After starting this season in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, Gluski was traded back to Cape Fear in Week 9. Since then Gluski has been the starter for the Wildcats and has guided Cape Fear to seven consecutive victories. This brings Gluski's record to 17-1 as a starting quarterback for the Caper Fear Wildcats. One more win will give the Wildcats the longest win streak of the 2004 season.

GOOD THINGS COME IN THREE: Oklahoma City Yard Dawgz receivers Kris Peters, Al Hunt and Timon Marshall will likely become only the second trio of receivers on the same team to each register 1,000 receiving yards in a season. Peters has already reached 1,000 yards, currently having 1,106 yards to his name. Al Hunt currently has 990 yards, needing just ten more yards to reach 1,000 while Timon Marshall sits at 988 yards, needing just twelve more. The only other team to accomplish this feat was the 2003 Quad City Steamwheelers who had Ira Gooch rack up 1,465 yards, Jeff Hewitt record 1,338 yards and Tim Dodge total 1,275 yards.

FOUR THE FIRST TIME: The Cape Fear Wildcats can do something this week no other af2 team has ever done, win all four games in a stretch of four straight regular season games on the road. The Wildcats have already defeated the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, Memphis and Macon in this stretch and play at Manchester on Saturday. Six other teams have played four straight road games, including Florida this season. The combined record of these six teams in their four road games is 10-14. In the final contest of the four games these teams hold a 3-3 record. Look below to see the record of these six teams.

SEASON TEAM RECORD
2000 Greensboro 0-4
2000 Birmingham 1-3
2002 Mobile 0-4
2003 Albany 3-1
2003 Florida 3-1
2004 Florida 3-1

WILLIAMS ON THE MOVE: The af2 features Ironman players, guys who play multiple positions and rack up stat lines not usually seen in outdoor football. Kevin Williams of Arkansas is working on one of the more interesting set of season stats this season. Williams started the season as the Twisters' starting quarterback. On the season Williams has completed 131 of 249 attempts for 1,593 yards and 22 touchdowns with six interceptions. He has also rushed 39 times for 156 yards and nine touchdowns and is Arkansas' leading rusher. After Week 10 Williams was moved back to his natural position of offensive specialist. Since then Williams has recorded 32 catches for 607 yards and 12 touchdowns to become the Twisters' second leading receiver. With Ted Alford, the Twisters' current leading receiver with 64 catches, headed to Canada to play in the CFL Williams could catch Alford and become the Twisters' leading receiver on the season if he averages eleven receptions in each of the next three games. If he does this, and current quarterback Travis Motley doesn't reach Williams' 131 completions Williams could finish the season as Arkansas' leading passer, receiver and rusher.

IN A RUSH: Florida Firecats FB/LB Steve Gorrie rushed eight times for 35 yards and two touchdowns to help lead the Firecats past the Birmingham Steeldogs on Saturday night. He now has 421 yards rushing this season and is closing in on the all-time league record. If Gorrie gets 19 yards this weekend against Laredo, he will own the all-time record for single season rushing yards. Only three other players in af2 history have rushed for 400 or more yards: Quentin Cradle rushed for 402 yards for Memphis in 2001, Sherard Poteete ran for 405 yards for Bossier-Shreveport in 2002 and Darnell Arceneaux holds the af2 record with 439 yards for Hawaii in 2002. Averaging 32.4 yards per game, Gorrie is on pace to rack up 518 yards before the season ends. If he does hit the magic 500 mark, he'd be the first 500-yard rusher in league history. Below is Gorrie's progress to date:

GP - GR YARDS LAST WEEK TOTAL YARDS TO 439 TO 500
13 - 3 35 vs. BIR 421 18 79

THE POLL: The curse bit Birmingham last week as they fell to Florida and the record of No. 1 teams dropped to 4-9 for the season. Below is a look at how ranked teams have performed this season:

WHEN RANKED W-L .PCT
No. 1 4-9 .308
No. 2 10-4 .714
No. 3 8-5 .615
No. 4 10-4 .714
No. 5 7-7 .500

SAUK BIDDING FOR 4,000 PASSING YARDS AND RECORD: In the history of af2, a QB has eclipsed 4,000 passing yards in a single season only eight times. Two of those times were by current Louisville gunslinger Matt Sauk. This season Sauk is on pace to add his name to that list for third time, but this time around it could be at the top of the list. The all-time single season record for passing yards is 4,462 by Ryan Vena with Albany last season. If Sauk hopes to break Vena's mark, he is going to need to do a bit better than his 277.5 yards per game average in the final three games of the season. Below is a look at Sauk's current pace compared to Vena's from last season:

PLAYER GM 13 YARDAGE SEASON TOTAL THROUGH GM 10 Next Game
Matt Sauk - LOU (2004) 249 vs. COL 3,607 7/17 at HAW
Ryan Vena - ALB (2003) 342 vs. WBS 3,558 310 yards at WBS
*After his 10th game last season, Vena rattled of five straight games of 300 or more passing yards

STRICKLAND ALSO LOOKING FOR 4,000: Oklahoma City QB Craig Strickland currently leads af2 with 3,661 passing yards for the season, but his Yard Dawgz have already played 14 games. While Strickland is a little further off the all-time record pace that Sauk is chasing, he is only 339 yards away from eclipsing 4,000 yards for the second time in his career. He had 4,009 with Tulsa in 2001.

HOME SWEET HOME: After an off week in Week 14, home teams rebounded to go 8-4 in Week 15. For the season home teams have gone 99-65 for a .604 win percentage. Last season home teams went 130-85-1 for a .604 win percentage. Overall in the history of af2 home teams have gone 501-330-1 for a .603 win percentage during the regular season. Below is a season-by-season chart:

SEASON HOME W-L-T HOME WIN %
2000 77-43-0 .642
2001 136-88-0 .607
2002 158-114-0 .581
2003 130-85-1 .604
2004 99-65-0 .604

SCORING LEADERS: Cape Fear's Matt Burstein scored 18 points on Saturday to increase his league-leading total to 234 for the season. With three games left, Burstein could challenge Shon King's all-time scoring record of 284 points. Currently Burstein is on pace to hit 288. Below is a look at the Top 5 scorers in af2 through Week 15:

PLAYER TEAM GP POINTS
Matt Burstein CPF 13 234
Bo Smith BOS 14 210
Tony Locke ALB 13 204
Kevin Prentiss MEM 12 198
J.R. Thomas WBS 12 180
Timon Marshall OKC 14 180

IF THE SEASON ENDED TODAY: In 2004 a total of 12 teams will qualify for the af2 postseason which begins the weekend following the last week of regular season play. As was the case in 2003, six teams from each the American and National Conference qualify for the playoffs. The six qualifying teams in each conference consist of the three division champions and three Wild Cards, which are determined by best overall record. In the First Round (August 6-7-8), the two division winners with the best overall records will have a bye. The division winner who did not earn a bye will host the lowest seeded Wild Card team. The top-seeded Wild Card team will host the remaining Wild Card team. Wild Card seeding is determined by overall record. In the Second Round (August 13-14-15), the division winners who had byes in the First Round will host the winners from the First Round. The top seeded division winner will play the lowest seeded team advancing from the First Round, while the second-seeded division winner will play the other winner from the First Round. The winners of the Second Round will meet for the Conference Championships on the weekend of August 20-21-22. The team with the better overall record hosts the Conference Championship game. The winners of the Conference Championships will face off in the 2004 ArenaCup on August 27, 28 or 29. The team with the better overall record will host.

AMERICAN CONFERENCE
1. Cape Fear (10-3) - Current Northeast Division Leader
2. Birmingham (9-4) - Current South Division Leader; Has HTH advantage over Tennessee Valley
3. Tennessee Valley (9-4) - Current Mid-South Division Leader
4. Wilkes-Barre/Scranton (10-3) - Currently losing HTH with CPF for Northeast Division tiebreaker
5. Florida Firecats (8-5)
6. Memphis Xplorers (7-6)
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7. Columbus Wardogs (6-7)
8. Manchester Wolves (5-8) - Currently has HTH advantage over ALB
9. Albany Conquest (5-8)
10. Bossier-Shreveport (5-9)
11. Macon Knights (3-10)
12. Arkansas Twisters (2-11)

First Round games would be: MEM @ TEN; FLO @ WBS; CPF, BIR receive byes

NATIONAL CONFERENCE
1. Tulsa (10-3) - Current Southwest Division Leader
2. Bakersfield (9-4) - Current West Division Leader
3. Louisville (8-5) - Current Midwest Division Leader
4. Oklahoma City (9-5)
5. Quad City (8-6)
6. Wichita (7-6) - Currently holds SOS tiebreaker over PEO and HAW
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7. Peoria (7-6) - Currently holds better win% over common opponents with HAW
8. Hawaii (7-6)
9. San Diego (6-7)
10. Green Bay Blizzard (5-8) - Currently holds better win% over common opponents with RGV
11. Rio Grande Valley (5-8)
12. Laredo (3-10)
13. Central Valley (1-12)

First Round games would be: WIC @ LOU; QUA @ OKC; TUL, BAK receive byes

*Teams in bold currently lead their respective division; SOS = Strength of schedule; HTH = Head-to-head

AMERICAN CONFERENCE SCENARIOS - WEEK 16
- Cape Fear and Wilkes-Barre/Scranton have clinched playoff berths. Neither team can clinch Northeast Division or First Round bye in Week 16


- Birmingham can clinch playoff berth with win OR Columbus loss. Birmingham cannot clinch South Division in Week 16.


- If Tennessee Valley wins, they clinch playoff spot and the Mid-South Division because they hold the HTH tiebreaker over Memphis. If Tennessee Valley loses combined with a Columbus loss, Tennessee Valley still clinches a playoff spot.


- Florida can clinch a playoff spot with a win combined with a Columbus loss.


-No other American Conference teams can clinch a playoff spot in Week 16.

NATIONAL CONFERENCE SCENARIOS - WEEK 16
- Tulsa clinches a playoff spot with a win OR if two of the following three teams lose: PEO, WIC, HAW. Tulsa can clinch Southwest Division with win combined with Oklahoma City loss.


- Bakersfield clinches a playoff spot with a win combined with two of the following three teams losing: PEO, WIC, HAW. Bakersfield can clinch the West Division with a win combined with a Hawaii loss.


- Oklahoma City clinches a playoff spot with a win combined with two of the following three teams losing: PEO, WIC, HAW.
- No team can clinch the Midwest Division in Week 16.

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