Analyzing the Hounds' Playoff Picture
October 23, 2024 - United Soccer League Championship (USL)
Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC News Release
It's been nine years since the Riverhounds' postseason status was unknown entering the final week of the season, but after a remarkable second-half turnaround this season, the Hounds' control their own path to the playoffs going into the season's final day.
With six teams still alive for the final four spots in the Eastern Conference, the Hounds hold the seventh position with 45 points after what could be a season-making 2-0 win at Loudoun United FC last Saturday.
So what needs to happen for the Hounds to get the job done entering the regular-season finale at home Saturday against El Paso?
1. Win and get in
The simplest, no-nonsense way for the Hounds to secure, at worst, the No. 8 seed is to win against the Locomotive. At 48 points, the only team that can leap the Hounds in the standings is Hartford Athletic, which has 43 points but two matches remaining - more on that below.
2. Midweek mayhem, or a clearer view in Florida?
One element keeping the playoff picture murky is the postponed match between Hartford and the Tampa Bay Rowdies, which will finally be made up at 7:30 p.m. Wednesday, Oct. 23 at IMG Academy in Bradenton, Fla.
But who Hounds fans should cheer for depends largely upon what is the desired outcome: A safer path to clinch, or a chance at a higher seed?
A Rowdies win or a draw would secure a playoff spot for Tampa Bay (as well as Rhode Island FC), reducing the field to four teams - Pittsburgh, North Carolina, Hartford and Loudoun - for two places. But a Rowdies win would also mean the Hounds need only a draw against El Paso to secure postseason soccer, as they hold head-to-head tiebreakers and the three-way tiebreaker with North Carolina and Hartford, the other two teams who could finish on 46 points.
A Hartford win, on the other hand, would bump the Hounds down to eighth place entering Saturday. However, it would also mean that the Hounds could pass Rhode Island (48 points), Tampa Bay (46 points) and Hartford (46 points), opening the long-shot possibility the Hounds could reach as high as the No. 5 seed with a win and setbacks for the other three.
3. Tiebreaker kings
The Hounds' biggest advantage in the playoff chase is their success against the teams they're directly battling, and the Eastern Conference at large.
The USL Championship's first tiebreaker is head-to-head results, meaning the Hounds win a one-on-one comparison with Rhode Island and Loudoun, and they lose only to Tampa Bay.
The next tiebreaker is points earned against Eastern Conference foes, and that is where the Hounds shine brightest. With an 8-5-9 record (33 points), the Hounds have a total unreachable by any of the other five contenders except Tampa Bay, but that is a moot point because two Rowdies wins puts them out of reach to be tied with the Hounds, anyway.
Because of their superior conference record, the Hounds come out ahead of North Carolina and Hartford in a two-team tie, and they lead virtually every possible three-or-more-team tie, as head-to-head only applies if a team has won the season series against all teams involved in the tie.
4. Preparing for the worst
Even if disaster strikes against El Paso, the Hounds have a path to the playoffs, but it would require one of two pieces of help: North Carolina losing at home to a Las Vegas Lights team battling to earn a home playoff game in the West, or Hartford failing to win either of its two remaining matches - Wednesday at Tampa Bay and Saturday at Orange County. Both of those occurring would allow the Hounds to keep the No. 7 seed.
In those scenarios, the tiebreakers would come to the Hounds' rescue, as they would remain ahead of any of North Carolina, Hartford, Loudoun or already-eliminated Birmingham on 45 points.
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United Soccer League Championship Stories from October 23, 2024
- Hartford Draw Tampa Bay 2-2 on the Road - Hartford Athletic
- Indy Eleven to Host Home Playoff Game on Sunday, November 3 - Indy Eleven
- Match Preview: Rhode Island FC vs. Miami FC: October 26, 2024 - Rhode Island FC
- Analyzing the Hounds' Playoff Picture - Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
- Las Vegas Lights FC Clinches Home Playoff Match to be Played on Friday, November 1 at Cashman Field - Las Vegas Lights FC
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