Match Preview: vs. Richmond Kickers

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Union Omaha

Match Preview: vs. Richmond Kickers

November 1, 2024 - United Soccer League One (USL1)
Union Omaha News Release


Consistency has been the name of the game for these Owls. In 2023, they ran cold early on (including a seven-match winless streak through May and June), but from the end of July onward weren't saddled with a single L... until they were unceremoniously dumped out of the playoffs by Charlotte Independence in a penalty shootout. This season, the club has been top three in the table since the start of May, and their longest winless streak is capped at three matches.

That's not to say they've been even-steven the whole season. The attack has at times alternated between unstoppable and unnervingly inert, especially against the low block, and much will be made of their recent wins coming in part thanks to red cards for non-playoff teams. The Owls still hold a 6-4-4 record against winning teams this season in League One and cup play, and with only two losses at home, they'll surely relish the advantage that Werner Park brings.

KNOTS AND CROSSES

To follow up on that point, Union Omaha's 13 points after falling behind is tops in the league, with them marking up a 4-4-1 record after ceding the lead. Also notable is the other end of the equation: after taking the lead, Union Omaha is 15-1-1 in knotting up the win from there, though Richmond Kickers haven't fully lost a lead yet at 6-3-0. With the Kickers' defense highly stabilized as we go into the playoffs (more on that later), an early breakthrough could be massive, and mark the difference between this looking like the first matchup between the two clubs this year, a 3-0 win in Omaha, or the scoreless draw a month and change later.

Whether or not Steevan Dos Santos is healthy enough to make the squad, this Owls squad will be putting balls into the box. Their 82 successful crosses leads the league, as does their 26.5% accuracy on crosses. Joe Gallardo in particular can be a menace to this end, with 120 crosses slotting him at 3rd in the league, and wingers like Dion Acoff and Charlie Ostrem are also adept at this type of direct wing play. Even depth pieces like Ryen Jiba, whose assist last weekend came on a floated cross from the endline, are threats any time they have the ball in the opposition third.

ABOUT RICHMOND KICKERS

Their opposition is the stalwart Richmond Kickers, who are much more than their 8th seed would signify. After their August defeat in Omaha left them 11th in the table and winless in seven, they went on a 4-0-2 run to punch their playoff tickets before losing their finale to Charlotte. Some late-season tweaks helped spark the change in fortunes. 18 year-old James Sneddon was stuck between the posts in late August and hasn't given up the goalkeeping job since. Dakota Barnathan has been moved from center back to a holding midfielder, occasionally in partnership with Zacarias Morán Correa. That midfield duo had a hand in these teams' scoreless draw in Richmond last month, though a Barnathan red card last weekend will complicate things.

Beyond that, there's been real stability. Ahead of Sneddon, they trot out a center back pairing of Kladi Cela and 18 year-old Griffin Garnett. Bookending them will be the ever-present fullbacks Maxi Schenfeld and Simon Fitch. Englishman Chandler O'Dwyer will be their main attacking threat, though League One legend Emiliano Terzaghi might combine with him up top. The Kickers' main playmaker Nil Vinyals has found a role as a halftime sub in midfield to provide the club a second half spark; the Owls had best be prepared to make tactical changes of their own to accommodate this.

X-FACTORS

While Richmond has turned it around in the second half in part due to canny internal moves, Union Omaha has undergone several midseason roster changes. Chief among those has been left wingback Charlie Ostrem, plucked from the amateur circuit in New Zealand after departing Chicago Fire II after 2023. Rarely has a midseason acquisition stepped in so seamlessly as Ostrem, who had started all but one match since his debut on August 9th against Fuego, up until he was (mostly) rested in the regular season finale. Tireless workrate is a must for any wingback in a three-at-the-back system like Omaha's, but Ostrem has been downright indefatigable since he joined, making an impact on both ends pitch. He's been rewarded on the stat sheet for his efforts too, with a pair of goals and assists in his 12 matches.

Core to Richmond's success are their own fullbacks, Maxi Schenfeld and Richmond native Simon Fitch. Fitch in particular has played every minute of the League One season and started all eight of their Jägermeister Cup matches to boot. Richmond are the only team whose top two players in touches are their fullbacks, with these two combining for a 20.8% share of their team's touches. After Vinyals, they're also the two biggest playmakers for their side as well, with a combined 51 chances created. Be especially wary of Schenfeld when he gets high up the pitch; his 138 crosses is far and away the most in the league.

ANALYTICS CORNER

One way in which these teams are diametrically opposed is in ball progression. Richmond's total Goals Added by dribbling (carries, take-ons, miscontrols, and dispossessions) ranks last in USL League One at -1.64. By contrast, Omaha is the league's best in this category in large part thanks to Lagos Kunga's 2.15 Goals Added via dribbling. In terms of Goals Added against, both teams are easily the most susceptible to a good ball carrier tearing them up, allowing around two Goals Added via dribbling.

Union Omaha has six players with a higher expected goals tally than Richmond Kickers' top expected scorer, Chandler O'Dwyer (at 3.23 xG). The Owls are the only club with three players above 4.9 xG, with Lagos Kunga and Steevan Dos Santos paced by 4th place Pedro Dolabella and his 8.51 xG. To be fair to O'Dwyer, he's shown himself to be a clinical finisher, overperforming his xG total by the fourth-highest margin with his six goals on the season. As touched on earlier, in Vinyals and the Schenfeld/Fitch duo, the Kickers have a trio of players who are more than capable of teeing O'Dwyer up.

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