LumberKings Update

January 4, 2006 - Midwest League (MWL1)
Clinton LumberKings News Release

Baseball is getting closer and Spring Training is a little over six weeks from now. Michael Hindman of the Newberg Report went through all of the Rangers top prospects and listed them in order of who he thinks has the most upside. These rankings have nothing to do with the Clinton LumberKings or any of it's staff members and is soley the opinion of Michael Hindman. I thought I would forward these on to fanclub members because it shows who could possibly come through Clinton in the 2006 season as well as what is in store for former LumberKings players.

INTRO: A few notes on what went into this endeavor. Rankings are based on a blend of upside, past performance and likelihood of success at the major league level. In other words, while Omar Poveda and Michael Kirkman both have enormous upside, it is still too early and they is still too far away to give them high scores on likelihood of success. In evaluating performance, I looked at general consistency, ERA, opponent's averages, left / right splits, grounder to fly ratios, strikeouts, walks, and situational stats. Where possible, I tried to include descriptions of the pitcher's repertoire, physical and mental makeup, and delivery, but th! is was not always possible.

As with all lists, there is an enormous amount of subjectivity involved and I won't pretend to suggest that there aren't thousands of ways to order the organization's top 20 starting pitching prospects that make just as much if not more sense than this one and there will be a few omissions that may raise eyebrows. I actually toyed with the idea of not ranking them at all since the rankings are, in many respects, unavoidably and completely arbitrary, but the conventions of the endeavor kept me from doing so. You can be sure that I struggled with the choices and wo! n't argue with anyone who thinks that someone not on these lists should have been included.

This is just one man's take on things and I did my best to make it fairly well-reasoned. I hope that this fuels your interest in Rangers minor league baseball and that it generates thoughtful discussion, debate and critique.

I'll release 1-10 starters list in about a week, followed by the infielders, outfielders, catchers and relievers in the weeks leading up to the reporting date for pitchers and catchers. ___________________________________________________________________

20. Shane Funk (RH; 19 y.o.; .318 / .397 / .586 @ R-AZ; 4th Rd. 2005)

Going into the 2005 draft, Dom Chiti told MLB.com's Jesse Sanchez that the Rangers were looking to get big. "We look at size and we try to take all aspects of a player in, but you look at the players in the big leagues, most of them are pretty big guys, especially when you start talking about corner players and bats," Chiti said. "Look at the pitchers, a lot of them are 6-foot-3, 6-foot-4, with some upside to them."

As usual, the often painfully direct Chiti meant exac! tly what he said. When the Rangers finally got around to announcing their selections, they basically brought two kinds of players into the Texas fold: big and really big, especially when it came to pitchers. They started with the enormous Junior Mayberry and generally stayed the course.

In a post-draft interview with MLB.com, scouting director Ron Hopkins provided these comments about the Rangers selections: (fourth rounder Shane Funk) "He's a big strong guy with a good arm and some sink on his fastball. He's a large man"; (fifth rounder Michael Kirkman) "He's a left-hander who is like Funk. He's big with a 90 mph fastball"; (seventh rounder Jake Rasner) "He's another big pitcher with a good arm. He is up to 92 mph"; (eighth rounder Brad Barrager) "He's a big strong pitcher who has been up to 93 or 94 mph"; (tenth rounder Matt Nevarez) "Big pitcher with a good arm, 90-plus arm"; (seventeenth rounder Chris Dom! inguez) "He has tools and he's a real large man. He's as big as Mayberry"; (twelfth rounder Dexter Carter) "He is a kid with big upside. Right-handed pitcher who is big."

You get the point. The Rangers went into the draft looking for big kids. And the first pitcher taken by Texas in the 2005 draft was the biggest one of all.

Fourth rounder Shane Funk, a 6'6", 235 lb. right hander from Panama City, Florida soared up the prospect charts in the summer of 2004 where he dazzled scouts in the Perfect Game showcases. His stock slipped a bit as he struggled early in his senior prep season, but he finished up very strong to reestablish himself as a top prospect, regarded by some as the second best prep pitching prospect in Florida (after mid-first rounder Chris Volstad).

Funk's final line from his rookie season in Arizona didn't look good on paper but when you only make nine appearances spanning 26.1 innings, a couple of bad outings can taint the final lines pretty significantly. In spite of a final 7.86 ERA, there was plenty to like about Funk's debut and the big man's stuff got good reviews. Scouts rated both his fastball and his curve as being at the head of the Rangers 2005 draft class and that says quite a bit to me, given that he was teammates with Matt Nevarez who offers both pitches at a high quality level. Pre-draft reports included praise of his changeup, calling it "deceptive with good arm speed."

Funk's AZL debut was a two inning shutout and he followed up with a pair of three-inning outings in which he gave up one run apiece. Through his first eight innings as a pro, Funk had surrendered two runs on eight hits and no walks while fanning eight. After a miserable five game stretch, he rebounded in his final appearance of the season, allowing one run on four hits in as many innings, fanning four and walk! ing one. His 1.61 G/F ratio in the AZL is certainly encouraging as is his 9.57 K/9 ratio.

2006 Projection: Funk should open the season in the Spokane rotation. Given his up and down senior prep season followed by an inconsistent AZL performance, he doesn't seem to be a fast track candidate at this time.

19. Fabio Castillo (RH; 16 y.o.; DNP in 2005; UFA 2005)

He's sixteen years old. He hasn't done a thing yet, but given what little I know about Fabio Castillo, and the fact that the Rangers, who-to borrow a phrase from the General Manager-don't like to "beat their chest" about much these days, are unable to disguise their enthusiasm for this kid, I'm confident that he merits inclusion on this list.

And there's a very good chance that his #19 ranking here will seem ridiculously low by mid summer.

After showing a 93 mph fastball with good late run in a United States "Perfect Game" showcase last year, man-child Fabio Castillo, a 6'3", 195 pound right hander from La Romana in the Dominican Republic (where the Rangers' Dominican Academy was located) was coveted by several big league clubs last summer including the Yankees, Mets, Braves and Red Sox, but it was the Rangers, through the considerable efforts of A.J. Preller, Director of International Scouting, who bagged the power pitcher with a $250,000 bonus.

"You have to give A.J. Preller credit for what he's done down there," one international scouting director said of his peer with the Rangers. "The Rangers were very aggressive. A.J. is very knowledgeable and he knows every player that is eligible. The guys they signed, he knows inside and out. He really gets to know guys better than most organizations, and it paid off for them."

Cas! tillo is a physical specimen who looks like he could grow into something that looks a lot like Jose Contreras as he fills out. He's got long limbs and a fast, loose arm. He stays tall and throws downhill with easy effort. In addition to his already plus fastball, Castillo features a sharp slider at 81 mph, an 83 mph change and an 81 mph splitter.

His Perfect Game scouting report indicates that he has an advanced feel for his age, showing good command and hitting his spots well. Perfect Game ranks him as a "10": "a high level pro prospect."

2006 Projection: Expect to see Castillo debut with the AZL club in June. Like Omar Poveda last year, he should endure some ups and downs, but he should also be the talk of the league by the time all is said and done. This young man is, by all accounts, a colossal talent.

18. Broc Coffman (LH; 20 y.o.; .238 / .307 / .322 @ SS Spokane; 48th Rd. 2005)

Like fellow 2005 draftee Doug Mathis, Broc Coffman had been picked in two previous drafts before the Rangers snapped him up in the 48th round. The A's selected the left-handed Coffman in both 2003 (34th round) and 2004 (35th round), offering him slot-appropriate bonuses in the $5,000 range, evidently assuming that he would jump at the chance to join his uncle Jim Coffman (pitching coach for Oakland's Texas League affiliate) in the A's organization.

Unlike Mathis, who signed after his junior year at Missouri, it appears that scouts viewed Coffman as a signability problem who was committed to at least one more collegiate season (at Kentucky). It certainly wasn't performance that caused him to slip 13 rounds.

Coffman's sophomore season at Lower Columbia Community College was brilliant (9-0; 1.01 ERA; 80 K's ! in 71 innings). But the Rangers stepped up to the plate, offered him what amounted to a well-above-slot $70,000.00 signing bonus and got what amounts to tenth round talent in the 48th round.

Coffman started off in the Spokane bullpen, posting an 0.71 ERA through six appearances spanning 12.2 innings to earn a spot in the Indians rotation. The transition was less than smooth, as Coffman struggled badly through his first four starts during which he lacked control, walking 12 in 24 innings. But when August rolled around, he took off. In five starts during the month, Coffman posted a 2.55 ERA while holding the opposition to a .240 batting average, fanning 23 and walking seven in 24.2 innings.

In September, he was even better, putting up a 0.69 ERA in two appearances covering 13 innings. His final start of the regular season was an eight inning domination of Boise, allowing one unearned run on two hits, striking! out six and walking just one. He followed that up with a 5.1 inning start in game four of the NWL Championship Series, shutting out Vancouver on two hits and a pair of walks while recording six whiffs.

Overall last year, Coffman was brutal on lefties, holding them to a .172 average (right handers went for just .256). And it appears that Coffman makes it very difficult for hitters to make good solid contact. He posted a positive 1.55 G/F ratio while surrendering just two homers in 69 innings of work and the NWL slugged just .322 against the southpaw.

2006 Projection: Coffman is assured a rotation slot, probably in Clinton, but a jump to Bakersfield either directly from spring training or shortly after the beginning of full-season play is not out of the question. Given the relative paucity of left-handed starting pitching in the system, Coffman will be given every chance to move up, especially if he continues his im! pressive trend of improvement.

17. Doug Mathis (RH; 22y.o.; .243 / .294 / .318 @ SS Spokane; 13th Rd. 2005)

Like Kometani, 2005 13th rounder Doug Mathis, a 6'3" righty out of the University of Missouri, is supposedly a pitcher right out of the old Grady Fuson playbook: A polished, pitchability guy without overwhelming stuff. Mathis throws strikes and likes to challenge hitters.

Selected in three consecutive MLB amateur drafts (2003 by the Dodgers, 2004 by the Mariners and 2005 by the Rangers), Mathis exhibits outstanding control (4.6 K/BB ratio) with a standard four-pitch arsenal that includes a heavy, 90ish fastball with armside run, and two breaking balls. An MLB scouting report indicated a plus change with sink, but his stats would suggest that he needs to work on that offering a bit as NWL lefties got to him at a .273 clip while right-handed hitters s! uffered to the tune of a .219 average.

Mathis averaged just under a strikeout per inning for Spokane in his professional debut season just as he had at both Central Arizona College (where he was an academic all-American) and at Missouri, and improved each month, lowering his monthly ERA from 3.00 in June, to 2.86 in July and 2.01 in August. His 1.49 G/F ratio is also very encouraging. Reading his numbers, I'm not sure I buy the "pitchability guy with mediocre stuff" tag. 2006 Projection: Mathis figures to be in Clinton's rotation to open the season, but it wouldn't surprise me if he jumped to Bakersfield. We'll be keeping a close eye on his splits this year to determine if he can find a way to keep lefties off balance. That could be the key to his future.

16. Kea Kometani (RH; 23 y.o.; .255 / .297 / .382 @ Low-A Clinton; 15th Rd. 2005)

Coming out of high school in Hawaii, the tall (6'4"), athletic Kometani had plenty of scholarship offers-as a volleyball player. But he chose baseball instead and matriculated at Pepperdine, the only school to offer him a baseball scholarship, where he was a closer until his Junior season. He finished up two seasons as a starter as the ace of a staff that included three 2005 draftees (as well as Brett Saberhagen's kid), with Kometani going to the Rangers in the 15th.

One of only two members of the Rangers' 2005 draft class to see full-season action last summer, Kometani made just two appearances at short-season Spokane before becoming a key addition to the Clinton staff as they mounted a surprise run to the MWL playoffs.

In 13 MWL appearances including nine starts, Kometani went 3-2 with a save and posted a 2.40 ERA while holding the league to a .255 average and a 1.53 G/F rati! o. What is perhaps most encouraging about Kometani's tenure in Clinton is the fact that, while he enjoyed immediate success (2.96 ERA in seven July appearances; 24.1 innings), he improved as the season went along (1.67 ERA in five August appearances; 27 innings). In the playoffs, Kometani capped off an opening round sweep of Quad Cities with seven shutout innings.

Though he wields a pretty ordinary fastball (86-89 mph), the right-handed Kometani features a fall-off-the-table splitter that observers think is a big-league quality pitch right now and makes him especially tough on lefties (0.86 ERA; .231 batting average). He keeps hitters guessing with a slider and a seldom-used change.

An outstanding student at Pepperdine, Kometani is also praised for his intelligence on the mount. He is, by all accounts, an exceedingly smart and crafty pitcher with exceptional control (3.54 K/BB ratio in Clinton) who understands how to set! hitters up by moving the ball around the strike zone.

2006 Projection: Having already dominated low-A hitters in his first professional season, Kometani should move on. He fits in the Bakersfield rotation where he should continue to enjoy success and he'll probably see Frisco by mid-summer where he'll learn a lot about himself and the Rangers will learn a lot about him.

15. Matt Nevarez (RH; 19 y.o.; .184 / .286 / .276 @ R-AZ; 10th Rd. 2005)

Pre-draft reports indicated that Matt Nevarez was a kid with a lot of potential and little idea of what to do with it. In other words, Nevarez might not have merited even a drive across town for former Rangers draft guru Grady Fuson. But the package of size and raw ability that Nevarez presented was so appealing to Fuson's successor that Dom Chiti was compelled to fly halfway across the country to see t! he big man for himself.

Unlike his predecessor who privileged "pitchability" over raw stuff and who was not terribly concerned with what a player looks like, Chiti favors big, athletic guys with tools and talent, believing that professional coaching can, as often as not, work out the kinks and bring out the most in the tools. So far, Nevarez appears to be a good example of that philosophy at work.

Nevarez is one of several behemoths from the 2005 draft (10th round) who goes about 6'5", 235 but he is also very athletic (a quarterback, wide receiver and punter in football and a four year starter on his prep hoops team). At San Fernando High School, Nevarez averaged almost a walk an inning, but in his first pro season, he began to harness his mid-90's fastball and potentially devastating curve to hold hitters to a .184 average while issuing 13 walks and fanning 24 in 28 innings of work. Lefties (.! 182) and righties (.185) suffered equally against the right-hander who posted a 1.80 G/F ratio while surrendering just one long ball.

Nevarez, who looks quite a bit like an even bigger Thomas Diamond, came into the system firing mid-90's heat and wielding an excellent curveball (which, in the scouting film I saw, he seemed to control much better than his heater). Like Diamond, Nevarez's delivery is slow and deliberate, both in his hip-turn and especially his over-the-top arm action, which is long and loose in back.

Given his size, strength and athleticism, Nevarez has every chance to develop into an incredible power pitcher with high-90's cheese, but what sets him apart for me right now is his excellent curve. I suspect that the club sees him as a potential closer down the road.

2006 Projection: Nevarez will turn 19 about a week before he reports to spring training and while he certainly improved his control after joining the Rangers organization, 13 walks in 28 innings hardly suggests that he's got the control thing knocked. He'll probably stay behind in extended spring training before an assignment to a short-season club, possibly returning to the AZL.

14. A.J. "Pirate" Murray (LH; 24 y.o.; .284 / .328 / .399 @ Double-A Frisco; 19th Rd. DFE 2000)

The southpaw Murray returned from a shoulder injury that cost him the 2004 season a different and much better pitcher. And this is a guy who was a Texas League all-star back in 2003 as a 21 year old. He'll turn 24 during spring training.

Murray was a DFE taken out of Salt Lake Community College in the 19th round of the 2000 draft and signed a week before the 2001 draft. He was sent off to the GCL Rookie club and posted a strong season, 3-3 with a 1.86 ! ERA in 53.1 innings, fanning 45 while walking just ten. He sailed through two levels of A ball in 2002, going 5-3 with a 2.87 ERA in Savannah and 3-3 with 3.02 ERA for the FSL Charlotte Rangers where he fanned 68 and walked 20.

Murray's 2003 season in Frisco was deceptively successful. He rode outstanding control and a plus change to a 10-4 record and a 3.63 ERA, which was sixth best in the Texas League, but it's difficult to reconcile those numbers with his peripherals. His K/9 and K/BB rates were poor. Prior to reaching double A, Murray had always posted a K/BB ratio of at least 3-1. In 2003, he struck out 90 while walking 63 in 144 innings. Moreover, his G/F ratio was a poor 0.73 and the league hit him at about a .300 clip.

Assigned to Bakersfield to open the 2005 season, Murray emerged with a new pitch-a slider that got good reviews-and while he was inconsistent, one stat stood out: he was suddenly racking up the K'! s. He left the Cal League with a shocking 64 whiffs in 60 frames, having walked just 13 and showed up in Frisco where he was excellent, posting a 4-4 record with a 3.26 ERA in 55 innings, striking out 49 while walking 15.

While his ERA against lefties (3.24) and righties (3.27) was nearly identical, a peek behind those numbers shows that he was a very different pitcher depending on which side of the plate the hitter stood. Murray's G/F ratio against lefties was 3.00, but against right handed hitters, it was 0.95. He held lefties to a .175 average but right handers hit him at a .323 clip. Oddly, he was just the opposite--quite a bit stronger against right handed hitters--in 2003, before his shoulder injury.

Murray finished the season with two starts for Oklahoma before being shut down for precautionary reasons.

2006 Projection: Murray could open up in the Oklahoma rotat! ion, depending on how many AAAA types are signed to minor league free agent contracts this winter. The development of a slider helped Murray begin to dominate lefties, and if he can recapture the magic of his plus change to hold right handers to a batting average below .300, he could emerge as legitimate candidate to break through as a starter, but given his splits from 2005, he profiles as a lefty specialist right now.

13. Nick Masset (RH; 23 y.o.; .313 / .380 / .477 @ Double-A Frisco; 8th Rd. DFE 2000)

Going into the 2005 season, there was a lot of buzz surrounding Nick Masset and, overall, he disappointed. He was added to the 40 man roster in November only to lose his slot in May after an up-and-down start to the Texas League season, but Masset rebounded and redeemed himself in July, earning the club's minor league pitcher of the month award, going 2-1 with a 2.03 ERA in six start! s. The 123 hitters he faced that month combined to hit a miserable .189 as Masset dominated in all six appearances.

But just as he seemed to have righted his ship, Masset began to drift once again, ending the season with a horrible August, posting an 8.27 ERA for the month.

Masset has a solid assortment, featuring five pitches including a heavy two-seamer, a quality cutter and a good curve. His astounding 2.74 grounder-to-fly ratio was the best in the system and places him in a class with the best ground ball pitchers in the big leagues. It's not a lack of stuff that keeps Masset from succeeding with greater consistency. It seems to be what is going on between his ears.

Even in the games where Masset's final line looked horrible, he usually dominated for three, four, five and sometimes six innings, but when things started to go badly, they quickly got way out of control. ! At times, you can actually see a change in his demeanor and body language on the mound that precedes the implosion.

It is perhaps telling that one of Masset's best efforts of the year came when Frisco was forced to send Jared Abruzzo out to catch in an emergency. Abruzzo was overcome by a case of the yips, making it impossible for him to throw the ball back to Masset. It was maddening to watch as Abruzzo would pump the ball three, four, five times trying to get it to release from his hand without success, often walking the ball back to the mound or waiting for Masset to walk thirty or forty feet towards the plate to get to Abruzzo's underhand toss.

Through it all, Masset remained calm and more focused than he had been or would be all year. It seemed to have forced Masset to think of himself as the most confident player on the field instead of the least confident, which is how he often appeared on other days.

Last winter, former Frisco pitching coach Steve Luebber told me "Nick has no idea how easy or how big his success can be." I wasn't sure what he meant until watching the big righthander all summer and now I know exactly what he meant. The talent is there. Now, Masset just has to believe in it.

2006 Projection: Masset will return to Frisco and should hold down a spot in their rotation once again. I can't overstate enough that Masset clearly has the talent to be any kind of pitcher he wants to be. But that remains the unknown. What does he want to be? If he struggles again, look for him to move to the bullpen where he was outstanding in seven innings last summer, allowing one unearned runs on two hits, fanning six while walking one.

12. Michael Kirkman (LH; 19 y.o.; .249 / .314 / .332 @ R-AZ; 5th Rd. 2005)

Lanky lefty Michael Ki! rkman has been on the margins of the prospect map for a long time, but with each passing year and each passing month, he moves a little closer to the center of the big picture. His debut professional season was no different.

Kirkman went into his senior prep season as a marginal prospect, but shot up the charts last spring to become what Baseball America considered a third-round talent as he grew bigger, added velocity and gained control of his temper. Though he was committed to Lake City (FL) Community College (where he might have been a teammate of outfielder Cameron Maybin, the number ten overall pick in last year's draft), Kirkman was recruited by a number of NCAA baseball powerhouses including Florida State, Mississippi State, Florida and Miami. The Rangers were therefore probably very fortunate to land him in the fifth.

Kirkman enjoyed a strong debut season, improving each month (4.21 ERA through his fir! st seven appearances; 2.52 through his final six) before going to fall intructionals where he created some buzz. Kirkman, as much as anybody, is a player that other players are talking about. That might not mean much to you, but that's how we identified Edison Volquez and Kevin Mahar as breakout candidates last year and Ian Kinsler the year before.

Last summer, AZL hitters suffered equally against Kirkman no matter which side of the plate they stood on. Lefties hit .255 against him while righties hit just .247. He didn't allow a homer all year and he posted a 1.29 G/F ratio while recording 58 strikeouts in 52.1 innings.

Kirkman has been blessed with the inability to throw the ball flat and straight. He features a heavy 90ish fastball that runs in on left-handed hitters, and two breaking balls, including a 1-7 curve that he controls well and a plus slider with hard, late bite. He hides the ball well but throws with some e! ffort, slightly across his body.

2006 Projection: Kirkman will probably be challenged in the Midwest League and he should struggle at first (if he doesn't, we're really on to something). We'll be looking for him to overcome the huge challenge and to once again continue to improve throughout the season.

11. Omar Poveda (RH; 18 y.o.; .305 / .344 / .414 @ R-AZ; UFA 2004)

Last winter, Buck Showalter told a group of fans gathered at the now-defunct Rawlings Grill at Ameriquest Field that the organization's intensified efforts to develop talent in Latin America was already paying off, saying that they had landed a pitcher "who would have been a top-five round pick if he had been in the draft." Showalter didn't name the kid, and I'm not sure he knew the name, but on opening day of the AZL season, I think the player revealed himself: his name is Omar Poveda.!

After missing spring training due to visa problems, the big (6'4", 200 lbs.) 17 year old right-handed Venezuelan stormed onto the scene with a dazzling debut for the little Rangers, fanning four Royals in four in four innings, allowing one run on four hits and a walk. The Royals went on to plaster the Rangers' bullpen, making Poveda's debut even more impressive. He followed up with another solid effort, fanning three in 3.1 innings, allowing one earned run and then went into a horrible two-game swoon, putting up identical lines (2.1 innings, seven earned runs). Poveda scuffled along through four more very ordinary July starts, but when August came around, he exploded.

In six August appearances spanning 25 innings, Poveda, who didn't turn 18 until this fall, posted a 1.80 ERA while fanning 24 and walking....two. That's right: two.

Not only does Poveda own what is fairly obviously overwhelm! ing stuff, but it figures to suit Arlington if and when the day comes that he sees it. His G/F ratio was 1.50 and he surrendered just one homer all season.

2006 Projection: Extended spring training followed by an assignment to one of the two short-season clubs, probably the AZL club once again given his age.

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The opinions expressed in this release are those of the organization issuing it, and do not necessarily reflect the thoughts or opinions of OurSports Central or its staff.

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