Steeldogs Keep an Eye on Postseason During Bye Week
June 28, 2006 - arenafootball2 (af2)
Alabama Steeldogs News Release
BIRMINGHAM, Ala. - Basking in their first bye week in nearly three months, the Birmingham Steeldogs are looking ahead to the final four games of the season, still locked in a tight battle for a playoff spot in the American Conference.
The Steeldogs begin a two-game road swing next week, playing at Rio Grande Valley on July 8 and at Macon on July 15. Birmingham closes out the regular-season with two home games: July 22 against the Memphis Xplorers and July 29 versus the Tennessee Valley Vipers. At this point, every game is critical to the Steeldogs postseason plans. No team has clinched a playoff spot as of Week 14, setting up what should be a wild finish to the af2's seventh season.
Here's how the race for the 2006 ArenaCup breaks down: six teams from each of the two conferences will earn a postseason birth. The seeding is determined first by which team tops their respective divisions, then by overall record. Tiebreakers help sort out situations where two or more teams with the same record are vying for one seed.
The first tiebreaker is simply the record of head-to-head competition between the teams this season. If the head-to-head series is split, the onus then falls on who won by the widest margin. If the teams are still tied, then common opponents that both teams have played during the course of the season are determined. Whichever team has the best record among those opponents wins the tiebreaker.
Strength of schedule follows and is determined by combining the records of team's opponents. Finally, if all else fails, a coin flip may determine a team's postseason fate.
The top two seeds in each conference (the division champions) will earn round one byes, while the remaining four seeds from each conference will compete on the first weekend of August.
So, if the season ended today, here's how the American Conference shakes out: Florida would hold the No. 1 seed as the South Division champion, while Wilkes-Barre/Scranton (Pa.) would grab the No. 2 seed as champions of the East Division.
Memphis comes in at No. 3, currently second in the South Division with a 9-3 record. Should Florida and Memphis end up tied record-wise at the end of the season, the Xplorers would hold the tie-breaker by means of point differential, since the teams split their early season series but Memphis' win was by larger margin.
Louisville is the No. 4 seed with a 7-5 record. The Fire holds a head-to-head tie-breaker over the Green Bay Blizzard, currently a No. 5 seed with an identical 7-5 record. Louisville defeated the Blizzard, 45-39, on April 29. The two teams meet once again in the final week of the regular season. Green Bay can win back the tiebreaker in that game with a victory of seven or more points.
Birmingham is the sixth seed, with tie-breakers over Memphis (head-to-head), Macon (head-to-head), Albany (common opponents) and Green Bay (common opponents). Currently, there are three teams with 5-7 records aiming at the Steeldogs for that final spot. Of the three, two have common opponent tiebreakers over Birmingham: Quad City and Manchester.
In spite of that, the Steeldogs seem to have the easiest route to the postseason among the conference competition, with three of their last four opponents saddled with losing records. The combined record of the four remaining teams on Birmingham's schedule is 20-27. In comparison, the combined record of Albany's final four opponents is 26-20, Manchester's is 25-23, Green Bay's is 24-23, Macon's is 30-30 and Quad City's is 22-26.
The National Conference is just as hazy, with three teams sharing identical 8-4 records. Spokane is currently the No. 1 seed at 9-2, leading the West Division by two games over Central Valley. Oklahoma City is the No. 2 seed at 9-3, currently the leader of the Midwest Division.
Arkansas is No. 3 at 8-4, with tiebreakers over both Central Valley (common opponents) and Tulsa (head-to-head), who share the same record. Central Valley is the No. 4 seed, with a common opponent tiebreaker over the No. 5 seed, Tulsa. Bakersfield, the last remaining National Conference team with a winning record (7-5), rounds out the seeding. Two teams, the Stockton Lightning and the Rio Grande Valley Dorados are in prime pouncing position with 5-7 records.
As there usually is every season, there are the longshots who, although they have not been mathematically eliminated, are hanging on by a virtual thread. The South Georgia Wildcats have the league's worst record at 1-11 and should be out of contention with another loss. Tennessee Valley, a franchise that had not lost more than six games in a season in their six year history, is second-worst at 2-10. Bossier City, whose 2006 claim to fame was being on the short end of a 72-3 final at home versus Tulsa, is 2-9. But don't rule out these guys just yet.
Did you know that the 6-10 Wichita Stealth still hold the benchmark for the playoff team with the worst regular-season record? It was 2002 and with Quad City on postseason probation it was the Stealth, not the 10-6 Steamwheelers, who punched a playoff ticket. Wichita was a field goal kicker short of knocking off the eventual league champion Peoria Pirates in the first round.
In all, six teams have made the af2 postseason in the past six years without winning records. In 2002, in addition to Wichita's 6-10 entry, two 7-9 teams made the playoff field of 16: San Diego and Rochester. All total, those six teams without a winning record finished 2-6 in the postseason, with San Diego in 2002 and Amarillo in 2005 the only teams to advance into the second round.
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