Sports stats

Restart Opportunity

by Steve De Rose
March 31, 2005 - Major Indoor Soccer League 2 (MISL 2)


The Major Indoor Soccer League season enters April. The off-field is one which Jim Egan and myself used to do every season at this schedule point: Project out the results of the key teams' games. I believe I have not done this since 1993-94. It is likely the same for Jim Egan.

You should remember this from a previous column I wrote:

All other things considered; the level of talent on each team in the League has been strongly compressed. There are no games on the master schedule to which one team can point and state, "That one's ours." No. The team must go out there and play that game (and all the others).

I will concentrate on the teams in the middle of the standings. It seems that the Milwaukee Wave are going to win the regular season championship, and the Philadelphia KiXX will finish second. At the foot, the Kansas City Comets are going to wind up in seventh.

This leaves four teams shooting for two playoff berths.

"This tree looks sturdy enough. I will go up it and onto a limb which offers an expansive vista of the field."

Someone else is looking into the jaws of death. The back-to-back defending League Championship Baltimore Blast. At 13-18, it seems more and more unlikely that they will be able to recover from all their ailments. They have only three home games remaining and their key game has already occurred. They needed to defeat the Chicago Storm in Baltimore this past Saturday night, while the Storm was missing three regular defenders, and had had to play (and lost) in Saint Louis the previous night, while the Blast sat at home and listened to the Internet. The Storm won by 3-5. The Blast is reduced to playing the role of spoiler, as they have three games remaining versus the Cleveland Force, and one at Chicago.

Let's roll in the remaining schedules of the three distinct franchises aiming for third and fourth places in the League:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saint Louis Steamers (18-15)

2 April v. Philadelphia

3 April @ Chicago ^

9 April @ Chicago ^

10 April v. Cleveland

16 April v. Milwaukee ^ (1:00 pm)

22 April @ Kansas City

23 April v. Chicago ^ (Kickoff is now at 7:00 pm CT)

Recall again that the Steamers will play forty games this season. Everybody else has thirty-nine.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Cleveland Force (16-14)

1 April @ Baltimore ^

2 April v. Milwaukee

7 April @ Kansas City

8 April v. Baltimore

10 April @ Saint Louis

15 April v. Chicago

17 April @ Milwaukee

22 April @ Baltimore ^

23 April v. Milwaukee (Kickoff at 6:00 pm CT)

The Force has the most games remaining on their schedule.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Chicago Storm (16-17)

2 April @ Kansas City

3 April v. Saint Louis ^

9 April v. Saint Louis ^

15 April @ Cleveland

16 April v. Baltimore (3:00 pm CT)

23 April @ Saint Louis ^ (7:00 pm CT)

"^" = games televised - not necessarily by the team indicated

I believe all of you know that the Storm moved up the kickoff of their last home game versus the Blast on the 16th because the Chicago Fire Major League Soccer team received their home opener (v. the San Jose Earthquakes) in the evening. But you may have missed that the Steamers have moved back the kickoff of their final regular season home game versus the Storm on the 23rd from 1:00 pm to 7:00 pm. With the Force kicking off an hour earlier in Cleveland versus the Milwaukee Wave, this will allow the Steamers or the Storm to know whether they really need to win this game.

I include the television data because teams play differently when they know the game is on TV, even if it is not their team that is televising the contest. As a footnote, the Force's TV games are Baltimore telecasts scheduled for tape delay (the following Thursday, if the pattern holds) on Comcast SportsNet Mid-Atlantic; the Storm's game on 3 April is for Comcast SportsNet Chicago; and the Steamers' telecasts, on 9, 16, and 23 April, are for KPLR-TV Channel 11. The 16th game will be tape-delayed to 7:00 pm.

The fun aspect of this game is attempting to prognosticate the impetus of each team in each match. Previous results sometimes have a bearing on the next game, and often, when a game is versus one's arch rivals, you need to factor out fatigue.

But at its core, these are heuristic predictions. They are for entertainment purposes only. Please, no wagering.

I start in third place with the Steamers. It looks as though Daryl Doran finally put his foot down with the team's owners. Lindsay Kennedy's contract was not renewed. The Steamers signed "Tati" Errecaldé, who was playing for the champion Detroit-Windsor Border Stars in the American Indoor Soccer League, and who had played for the Steamers last season.

The Steamers have accomplished so much so far this season. The franchise came back from the dead. They managed to get back into the venue in which they need to play to have a chance at profitability. Now, they have been announced as the host for the second match of the League Championship (on Saturday, 21 May - likely to be telecast live on ESPN2).

So why do I get the feeling that this is the high point of the season for the team? And that it comes a month too soon?

The Steamers on the field have been powered by Daryl and Joe Reiniger. They traded Mike Apple and Nate Houser to the Blast for Carlos "Chile" Farias, who has been described as dressing room poison by players and coaches on at least one other League team. As long as he scores goals, it should be okay. But if defenses shut him down, and he starts fouling (and being penalized), this could get toxic. A skeptical roster move was the release of backup goalkeeper Christopher Smith. It is one thing to not dress or play him, but to drop him now makes one ponder how close are the Steamers to the salary cap?

A key indicator for them is this Saturday. The Philadelphia KiXX visit Saint Louis. If I was KiXX head coach Don D'Ambra, I would use this Finals announcement as the dressing room quote for the KiXX in this game. Urge the team to send the message that, "We are going to be back here on May 21st as the 'home' team, whether the League wants it or not."

If the Steamers lose this game, they then have a game late Sunday afternoon in Chicago, and another game in Chicago the following Saturday night, with a short turn-around versus Cleveland on the 10th. This could become a four-game losing streak.

But that is likely too much of a stretch. Here is how I think the Steamers will finish.

2 April v. Philadelphia - L

3 April @ Chicago ^ - L

9 April @ Chicago ^ - L

10 April v. Cleveland - W

16 April v. Milwaukee ^ - L

22 April @ Kansas City - W

23 April v. Chicago ^ - W

Final record: 21-19.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

On to the Force. They have a lot of games remaining. This is not a significant residue of the cessation of San Diego and Monterrey. The Force are playing much, much better since they revamped their offense around John Ball. Despite the ballot box stuffing by some Wave fans on the official League World-Wide Web site, the acquisition of Genoni Martinez is the most significant pick-up of the season. (Has Sinesa Alebic played a game yet for the Wave?) Their offense has improved to the point that it enables their average defense and goalkeeping to be sufficient.

The Force has three games remaining with Baltimore. This is the arch rivals factor to which I referred. The Force is a better team than the Blast. But when Cleveland plays in Baltimore, things happen. The Blast get out with the "W." Although it is displeasing to speak of, the tangential attitudes these two franchises have toward the other permeates down to the field. You would have to believe that the Force know their behavior in games is now going to be looked at with a magnifying glass. If there is another brouhaha involving them, the ax is going to fall, and it will not be limited to third-line forwards. If the Force were to lose their defensive or midfield players, or goalkeeper, to suspensions, these projections could be changed.

1 April @ Baltimore ^ - L

2 April v. Milwaukee - L

7 April @ Kansas City - L

8 April v. Baltimore - W

10 April @ Saint Louis - L

15 April v. Chicago - W

17 April @ Milwaukee - L

22 April @ Baltimore ^ - L

23 April v. Milwaukee - W

Final record: 19-20.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

We proceed to the Chicago Storm. They have had an up-and-down season, albeit mostly on the field. The team has accomplished more than could be expected. Many would not be astounded if their record at this mark in the season was 13-20. Their strengths are an incredible absorption of the indoor game by goalkeeper Danny Waltman, solid play in midfield from "Novi" Marojevic and Lazo Alavanja, and sufficient offense. They had to release Byron Alvarez back to the Portland TIMBERS (U.S.L. Division I), so this aims more offensive production towards Awadalla Morad. Their deficiency is defense. They are thin, thin, thin. Gaston Pernia will miss four more games, and Leo another two, due to their suspensions. They signed another (ex?-)Fire player, defender Denny Clanton, as a provision. They have only six games remaining, split evenly. They should win all their home games. To make the playoffs, they need to win an away game. Somehow, I do not foresee this occurring. Ultimately, the Storm do not really need to make the playoffs. Chicago Fire general manager Peter Wilt related to me that the Fire winning both the MLS Championship and the Lamar Hunt U. S. Open Cup in their first season (1998) left the promotional wing wondering how to sell tickets for 1999.

Coaches and off-field personnel need to maintain that the team's objective is to make the playoffs and perhaps win the Championship, but they know, and I know that they know, that finishing in fifth place and missing the playoffs by percentage points or on a tie-breaker would be something on which they could sell an improvement for in 2005-06.

2 April @ Kansas City - L

3 April v. Saint Louis ^ - W

9 April v. Saint Louis ^ - W

15 April @ Cleveland - L

16 April v. Baltimore - W

23 April @ Saint Louis ^ - L

Final record: 19-20.

Force earn fourth place on tie-breaker: Head-to-head record versus the Storm.

Oooh. That tree was firm. I'm glad I didn't break any branches climbing up and down it. Maybe I will do this again next year, but not before then.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I must comment here on the League's announcement that the Finals this season will be a set two games: in Milwaukee on Saturday, May14 and in Saint Louis on Saturday, May 21. Mr. Oliver Tse, on his SoccerTV World-Wide Web site, wrote that the League has made time buys on EXPN2 for these matches. The Championship Series announcement is slippery because it sends a lucid message to the League's teams that keenly infers the League wants the Wave and the Steamers in the Finals. This may be the best hope for high attendances in the Finals, but it also provides an on-field grudge for the teams of Philadelphia, Cleveland, and Chicago.

And as much I loathe to write anything denigrating about the officiating in the League, the referees have to acknowledge what this announcement ultimately connotes. Perhaps it plants the seedling in their subconscious brains that "this call" should not go against Saint Louis or Milwaukee.

Worst case scenario: In the final game of their seasons, the Storm are leading the Steamers by 6-4 in the 4th quarter, and with the result in Cleveland this night, a Storm victory would sink the Steamers into fifth place - by the virtue of their playing a fortieth match. Bingo: Some jaw-dropping whistles are begun being called against Chicago.



Major Indoor Soccer League 2 Stories from March 31, 2005


The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer(s), and do not necessarily reflect the thoughts or opinions of OurSports Central or its staff.


Sports Statistics from the Stats Crew
OurSports Central