Blaze Stat Guy Breaks Down Home Vs. Road
May 4, 2011 - Arena Football League (AFL)
Utah Blaze News Release
The Utah Blaze have started the 2011 season with a 3-3 record through the first six games. They have won all three games at home while falling in all three road contests. This has led me to look further into why this is happening.
Through six games, Utah leads the AFL in scoring at 63.2 points per game. This number balloons to 70 per game in home games with games of 72, 69 and 69. On the road, Utah scores just 56.3 points per game in three contests. Utah scored 53 at Orlando, 55 at San Jose and 61 at Arizona. That is a two touchdown difference between home and road games.
The Blaze actually average more yards per game on the road compared to the three home games. Utah racks up 338 yards per night in road games to just 329 in games at home. The big difference is the 323.7 passing yards on the road to the 305.7 in home games.
The blaring difference in home versus road is the conversion rate on third and fourth down. Utah has been excellent in converting those situations at home. The Blaze has gone 14-of-24 (58%) on third down at EnergySolutions Arena while converting 6-of-9 (67%) fourth down opportunities. That adds up to 20-of-33 in the combined third and fourth down chances. That is a 61% success rate on those critical downs.
In comparison, Utah is just 7-of-21 (33%) on third down in three road games. They are a little better at 5-of-11 (45%) on the road. That means they have converted 12-of-32 chances on third and fourth down while on the road. The success rate of 38% is 23 points lower than the home success rate.
Utah currently ranks third in the league in turnover margin at a plus-1.17 per game. They are +7 through the first six games with 15 takeaways and eight turnovers. All eight turnovers have come in road games. In fact, Utah is minus-three on the road this year with five interceptions and three lost fumbles.
At home, Utah has yet to turn the ball over. In 122 pass attempts they have zero interceptions and they recovered the ball the only time it was fumbled. The defense has come up with 10 takeaways at ESA. They have grabbed five interceptions in 93 pass attempts by the opposition. The Blaze has also collected five of the eight fumbles by the visitors. That all leads to a +13 difference between home and road games.
Ben Stallings has a huge discrepancy in rushing yards. At home, Stallings has gone for 73 yards on 17 carries with seven scores. He averages 4.3 yards per rush and 24.3 yards per game. In road games, he has just three rushes for three yards and one score while playing in just two games. That is 22.8 yards per game difference and 3.3 yards per rush.
Aaron Boone numbers at receiver are also intriguing. Boone has made 34 receptions both at home and the road; however Boone has 461 yards at ESA and 313 on the road. That is almost 50 yards per game difference between the two. His touchdowns numbers go the other way though. He has 12 touchdowns away from home while scoring just seven times at home.
Alvance Robinson has been huge in road game. Robinson is averaging 102.7 yards per game in the three road games with 20 catches and five scores. In his three home games, Robinson has made 19 receptions for 186 yards and four scores. That is just 62 yards per game and a 15.4-to-9.8 yards per catch difference.
All in all, it may be the slow starts that are the biggest difference between home and road performance. Utah outscores the opposition 33-24 in the first quarter and 99-64 in the first half at home. On the road, the opposition holds a 42-34 first quarter advantage and a 111-80 first half edge. Playing from behind changes the way the game is played and would lead to the difference in all the numbers above.
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- Blaze Stat Guy Breaks Down Home Vs. Road - Utah Blaze
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