Over a Cup of Coffee

by Jerry Hewitt
April 10, 2010 - Indoor Football League (IFL)

Who will survive to play in 2011?

An interesting title, don't you think? I mean, who will survive to play in 2011? This morning I was thinking of the odds of all of the big 4 returning. My thinking is we might see vast changes on the indoor football landscape next season. It just feels as if change is in the air.

It might come from new leagues springing up, old ones merging with new or existing ones, or some just calling it a day.

Starting small, the CIFL may have its best group of teams in its short history. The SIFL added some good teams to the mix this season, but obviously made some of the first season's errors again. Moving up the food chain, the AIFA has expanded beyond reasonable control, but in doing so picked up a few new good teams while also adding to the junk pile. The IFL did the best job of picking up new solid franchises, but maybe still ignored, for the most part, existing troubled franchises.

A couple days ago I was sent a link to an article announcing that Ogden of the AIFA would not be playing their final five home games, but will fill out their road game commitments. My feeling is you can't pay the bills on a "generously estimated 1200 attendance." That is just one example in one league of troubled waters.

The numbers speak very loudly. This season we have seen more defaults and near defaults than in the last five years. El Paso, IFL, pulls plug, sells off other teams; Alaska and Colorado, IFL, encounter problems. Colorado underwent ownership change, while Alaska is still hanging on. Houston, SIFL, pulled the plug less than a week before their season opened. Ogden, AIFA, became road warriors.

There is a message here if anyone wants to hear it. It's "Slow down, dangerous curves a head." In tough economic times most businesses don't expand. They take needed resources to strengthen what they have, not spend valuable resources in bad or unstable markets. All four of the major leagues went against this precept, the CIFL and SIFL out of need, the AIFA and IFL out of greed. The CIFL and SIFL maybe had little choice, but the AIFA and IFL did have options. Bringing former af2 teams in was not bad, they were already solid franchises, well established in their markets, but I'm referring to new franchises, untested markets.

If one looked closely they could see the Ogden, Alaska and Colorado problems coming. El Paso, I'm not so sure, but there is a history of multiple teams under one ownership having problems. The AIFA more than the IFL should've ceased expansion for 2010 and looked at how to protect what they had, but no, business as usual, and I expect their Alaska franchise to show signs of trouble before seasons end as well.

I feel the CIFL is trying to pull all their teams together and all work as one team. From what I understand, from league level to team level, overall operating budgets are less than in any of the other three. If they can get through the season with all their current teams, without any major problems, they most likely will return in 2011 with these same teams. In my opinion, they would be wise to not look at any expansion and just continue doing what they are doing this season because its working.

The SIFL I expect to disappear or merge. They made good pick ups in the off season, but frustration throughout is very high. The model they chose has not worked or they haven't followed it. In my opinion, all the remaining 2010 teams are solid or appear to be. I think they could work out a very favorable merger, but I'm not sure where. I doubt the AIFA or IFL are considerations and the CIFL is too distant. Most likely we're talking merging with a new league that may or may not have already popped up on the radar.

I don't see much change in the IFL. They may lose a few teams, but are large enough to absorb the losses without major impact. It's doubtful they will expand as they did in 2010 and if they do, it might be in the way of teams coming from their closest off the field rival, the AIFA.

The big news in all this is the AIFA. It's obvious not all agree with how business is done over there or they wouldn't have lost teams like Columbus. In 2010, they and the CIFL gained no new teams from other leagues. The AIFA is on the verge of major change. I expect two things after the season: multiple teams jumping to other leagues and some current teams folding. The folding may not wait until after the season. Their West division could end up very sparse once again, especially if money gets tighter and league subsidized teams are not self supporting. At the very least, I see major downsizing in the AIFA and worst case scenario, a total break up of the league. The more solid AIFA teams, ones where league money is not invested, might already be checking out options for 2011.

Mostly because of the economy, regional play is becoming the rule. It should have been all along as building smaller regional divisions with 5 to 6 teams each creates better rivalries and allows for more fans to follow their team on the road. There is no downside to regional play if there are enough teams in each division where playing the same team three and four times can be eliminated. The CIFL and SIFL have had this philosophy from the start. The IFL bought into it for the current season. If the IFL looks to expand in 2011 they should do so within the borders of existing divisions. It's just good for all. The AIFA is too spread out to have real regional play and won't for 2011 either. If they survive, there might be even more distance between the teams left.

I mentioned change in the new league area. One has surfaced in the form of the UIFL. I don't expect to see them make any impact, if they even get off the ground. The others I've been watching are the IIFA and the RIFL, both out of Texas. I'm not sure either of these will step up to be major players. The IIFA seems content to play in that zone between semi pro and pro. The RIFL recently split, with the Florida part of the league taking the name and little else with them, leaving the other faction with most of the assets. the Florida group might try to hook up with the SIFL, but if that happens, I hope the SIFL does its homework before letting them in. The other group is still an unknown, still re-forming, so the book is still open there.

Other scenarios are teams breaking off from the AIFA or IFL to form new leagues. It is doubtful this will happen in the IFL, although I've heard rumblings that some older UIF teams in the league may not be happy with the Intense league leadership. Most likely if a new league is to to form out of a current league, it would come from the AIFA disgruntled. This is a very likely scenario if the AIFA does end up with a rocky season.

All in all I see 2010 as a season that is preparing for change. The last time I saw this was in 2006 and with the resulting change being the final downfall of the NIFL and the AIFL and a big footprint being established with the rise of the AIFA.

Friday night

Down in the SIFL I wondered who would show up Jekyll or Hyde wearing Louisiana Swashbucklers uniforms. Little did I know that both would as Louisiana 1-2 scored a lot of points and gave up a lot of points in their loss to the Greenville Force 2-0, 45-57. No stats were available this morning, but I believe Louisiana had an early first half lead of 20-6 before Greenville woke up. For most of the game it was a back and forth battle with Louisiana having a chance to tie things up with a long field goal with no time remaining, but they missed. In the IFL, it wasn't any surprise that 2-3 Kent downed the Alaska Wild 2-4, 59-54.

Tonight

In the IFL, eight games are on tap including an important Omaha 2-2 at Wichita 4-1 match up, plus West Michigan takes their 3-0 record on the road against 3-1 Richmond. Out west Tri-Cities at 0-3 hosts Fairbanks, 4-1. This may be best chance yet for the Fever to get into the win column. Even at 2-2 Sioux City at home against 4-1 Sioux Falls won't be an easy one for the Storm.

In the AIFA, San Jose is at Yakima which may not be as easy to get a win for the Wolves as one might think. Richmond is at Reading in a battle of .500 clubs. One cancellation and one reschedule in the AIFA this week, Wenatchee at Ogden, cancelled, while Wyoming at Alaska, rescheduled due to transportation issues.

The only other action tonight comes in the CIFL as they feature three games, the most action so far for the CIFL, Unbeatens, Wisconsin 1-0, is at Cincinnati, 3-0, while 0-2 Miami Valley has its best chance to get into the win column on the road in Fort Wayne, 0-1. Last up 1-1 Marion is at 0-1 Chicago.

There are fourteen games scheduled in the AIFA, CIFL and IFL today, I've listed nine which I feel should be great games to catch if you have the chance. I listed all three in the CIFL since with only six teams in the league each game far more important than maybe some games in the AIFA and IFL.

Tomorrow

I really feel Sunday games are a bad idea and hurt attendance, but that said, still four games on tap. The IFL has three: Rochester 2-2 at 0-3 Maryland, Green Bay 4-1 at in state rival La Crosse, 0-4, and last Colorado 9-4 at 3-1 Billings. In the AIFA, Baltimore 4-0 is up in New Jersey to take on the Revolution 0-3.

This article and more archived at The Indoor Football Report located at www.IndoorFootballNetwork.com Comments about this article or suggestions can be made to indoorbowl@yahoo.com

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The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer(s), and do not necessarily reflect the thoughts or opinions of OurSports Central or its staff.