Football to the Walls!

by Ron Estes
Published on April 5, 2000 under Indoor Football League 1 (IFL 1)

by Ron Estes

Chalk Talk

First Things First--Thanks to the broadcast and print media who made use of last week's pre-season power ratings. I saw or heard them quoted in several cities. Opinions of my football savvy correlated directly to the local teams' ratings. (Funny how that works!) Anyway, I'm relieved that the regular season's underway, because it's much easier to evaluate on-field performance than it is to compare rosters, and I prefer to give praise when its been earned.

Margin of Victory--In Week 1 of the IFL season, winning teams outscored losing teams 395 to 251. This creates an average Week 1 score of 43.9 to 27.9, and a 16-point average margin of victory.

Home-Field Disadvantage--The 1999 IFL home-field advantage trends didn't hold true in the first week of the 2000 season. Home teams went a paltry 3-6 in Week 1, though they outscored the visitors 333 to 313. Casper's 43-point home win over Wichita is responsible for the conflicting statistic.

Growing Pains--Expansion teams didn't fare particularly well against established IFL teams in Week 1. Expansion teams went 1-4, with the Erie Invaders winning their inaugural game at Dayton. Existing franchises outscored expansion teams 198 to 166 in the first week, for an average score of 39.6 to 33.2, and an "established franchise edge" of 6.4 points.

South Dakota: The "Road Warrior" State--In the opening week of the 2000 IFL season, both South Dakota squads beat the odds, as they won road games against their North Dakota counterparts. Apparently, there's a North Dakota law that limits the home team to exactly 30 points.

Are You Experienced?--There are several universal laws of football handicapping that apply to the second week of the season, in any league you follow:

1. Teams are seldom as good as they look in Week 1.
2. Teams are seldom as bad as they look in Week 1.
3. Teams with a bye in Week 1 (Billings, Johnstown, Topeka) don't perform as well as squads with one week of game experience. 4. Ignore #3 if the experienced team suffered a lot of injuries in Week 1.

With that wisdom in mind, let's move on to "The World's Most Anticipated IFL Power Ratings..."

Power Ratings (with comments):

• GREEN BAY--96: The Gold Cup champs performed as advertised at LaCrosse. The Bombers face progressively tougher competition over the next three weeks.

• PEORIA--95: New faces, same results. The Pirates are Back in Black! [Note: QB Gary Porter is out for six weeks, with a groin pull.]

• LINCOLN--93: The Lightning showed a new wrinkle in Week 1. They call it "defense." [Note: RB Damon Benning is out for one month, with a quadriceps injury to his left leg.]

• ERIE--91: The Invaders offense is a good balance of running and passing, led by hard-nosed QB Johnny Smith.

• STEEL VALLEY--90: Last-second heroics lifted the Smash to their first road victory ever. They get the week off to celebrate.

• MADISON--89: Don't read too much into the Mad Dogs' opening-week loss. QB Jay McDonagh and RB Brent Moss are the real deal.

• TOPEKA--89: Good news--the Knights are regaining consciousness, following their pre-season pummeling in Lincoln. Bad news--the IFL Champion Bombers will be the first thing they see.

• CASPER--88: The Cavalry's trampling of the Warlords sent shockwaves through the IFL. Who are these guys, and what do they want?

• DULUTH--87: Hoolihan's Da Man, after rallying the Jacks to a late win in Mankato.

• SIOUX CITY--86: The Attack gave Lincoln all they could handle in Week 1, holding the high-octane Lightning offense to 40 points, nearly two TDs below their 1999 average.

• BLACK HILLS--85: In Rapid City, there's a new definition for "Rushmore." It's what RB John Johnson does!

• BILLINGS--84: The Bolts bring a strong lineup into their debut game. They'll need to put together four solid quarters to beat Black Hills, who outlasted Fargo in Week 1.

• SIOUX FALLS--83: The Cobras showed poise in their trip to Bismarck's "Fire Pit." Attention to detail, including special teams, made the difference.

• FLINT--82: The Flames led during most of their first game, but couldn't hold off the Smash on the final play.

• MINNESOTA--81: The Rage gave up big plays, and couldn't convert in the red zone, in dropping their Week 1 contest to Duluth.

• DAYTON--80: QB Danny Smith needs to improve on ugly Week 1 performance (4-21, 36 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT) for the Skyhawks to compete with Flint.

• FARGO--79: Brilliance of Stein-to-Roberson combination was overshadowed by 0-20 fourth quarter collapse against Black Hills.

• LACROSSE--78: The River Rats were their own worst enemy in Week 1, handing the game to Green Bay via five turnovers.

• BISMARCK--77: The Blaze has a fairly long "to-do list" following their loss to Sioux Falls. Job 1: Find a kicking game.

• WICHITA--77: The Warlords' stock fell faster than Microsoft, following their Week 1 judgement at Casper.

• JOHNSTOWN--76: The Jackals have the lowest long-distance bill of any IFL team, with only one player from outside of Pennsylvania.

Week 2 Lines (Home team in CAPS):

Friday, April 7:

• LINCOLN (1-0) by 17 over Fargo (0-1)--Expect the Freeze to bounce back from a poor fourth quarter performance against Black Hills. Just don't expect it this week.

• CASPER (1-0) by 20 over Bismarck (0-1)--The Blaze was outplayed in nearly every department by Sioux Falls. It won't get any easier against the Cavalry, who racked up the league's best offensive and defensive numbers in Week 1. [Live audio webcast: http://www.kfyr.com/kfyrlive.htm]

Saturday, April 8:

• BLACK HILLS (1-0) by 3 over Billings (0-0)--The Black Hills fans are nuts, and the visitors are the Bolts. Put it together, and you get a Machine victory. [Live audio webcast: http://kotaradio.rapidnet.com/]

• Flint (0-1) by 1 over DAYTON (0-1)--Two teams affected by turnover: the Flames in the front office, and the Skyhawks on the sideline. Coaches call the plays, General Managers don't. Advantage Flint.

• ERIE (1-0) by 13 over Johnstown (0-0)--The Invaders have three advantages going into the IFL's Battle of Pennsylvania: home turf, one game of IFL experience, and a roster with more major college talent. [Live audio webcast: http://www.johnstownjackals.com/audio/index.html]

• Green Bay (1-0) by 10 over TOPEKA (0-0)--The Bombers and Knights split their 1999 season series. The Bombers won in Week 10, 50-32 at Topeka. The Knights returned the favor in Week 12, pulling a 42-39 upset at Green Bay. The Bombers are nearly unbeatable on the road, compiling a 6-1 mark in regular season games.

• MINNESOTA (0-1) by 3 over LaCrosse (0-1)--Home-field edge goes to the Rage. However, the Minnesota secondary was repeatedly burned on deep routes in Week 1, and Rats receiver JoJo Justice could have a big game this week. [Live video webcast: http://www.purplerage.com/webcast.html]

• Peoria (1-0) by 21 over WICHITA (0-1)--The rowdy Pirates are the last people you'd invite to your inaugural home opener, especially when you're coming off a 43-point loss.

• Sioux City (0-1) by 4 over SIOUX FALLS (1-0)--The Battle of "Boys Named Sioux." How can a 0-1 team be favored, on the road, over a 1-0 team? It comes down to the competition. In their loss to the Lightning, the Attack showed they can do battle with the IFL's best. [Live audio webcast: http://www.ksfs.com/. DirecTV: Midwest Sports Channel, tape delay.]

Bye: Duluth, Madison, Steel Valley

Enjoy this week's games!

Note: Power ratings and game lines are for entertainment purposes only. Opinions expressed are solely those of the author. The author is not affiliated with the Indoor Football League or its teams.

Indoor Football League 1 Stories from April 5, 2000

• Football to the Walls! - OSC Original by Ron Estes

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer(s), and do not necessarily reflect the thoughts or opinions of OurSports Central or its staff.