Football to the Walls!

by Ron Estes
Published on March 29, 2000 under Indoor Football League 1 (IFL 1)

by Ron Estes

Chalk Talk

First off, hello to all of the new IFL fans! "Footballs to the Walls!" is a preview of each week's IFL action, loaded with trends, angles, and statistical analysis you won't find anywhere else.

This column started in Week 2 of the 1999 IFL season, as a posting to the IFL mailing lists at Onelist.com. The power ratings and game lines quickly caught the attention of IFL fans, coaches, players, media and executives. I was overwhelmed by the response, and thrilled to know that people around the league enjoy the same kind of football "chatter" that I do.

So, by popular demand, this column returns for its second season. Thanks for reading it!

Some stats to chew on from last year:
--The median margin of victory in the IFL was 13 points.
--The median home-field advantage in the IFL was 6 points.
--Home teams had a winning percentage of .646, visitors .354.
--25% of games were decided by 6 points or fewer.
--50% of games were decided by 13 points or fewer.
--75% of games were decided by 28 points or fewer.
--The largest margin of victory was 55 points (Topeka over Steel Valley in Week 4).

And now, a word about power ratings and lines. Even in the NFL, these are an inexact science. But in the IFL, before the season begins, they're darn near impossible. Information is compiled from sketchy sources: home-town media reports, incomplete rosters, and internet message boards. I've applied my best analytical techniques to the available information to arrive at these pre-season power ratings and opening week lines.

Take 'em for what they're worth.

So if you feel that I've slighted your favorite team, my apologies. However, if these ratings and lines prove accurate, I hope you'll bid when I auction my dartboard on eBay!

Pre-Season Power Ratings (with comments):

• GREEN BAY--96: Can anyone shoot down the Bombers? The defending Gold Cup Champions open the season with a pair of road games.

• PEORIA--95: Several key players, including QB Johnny Johnson, have moved on to the CFL and Arena Leagues. But no one in the IFL reloads faster than Pirates Coach Bruce Cowdrey.

• LINCOLN--93: More Nebraska alumni than a Husker Homecoming Parade. The clear favorite to win the Western Conference.

• ERIE--91: The Invaders are loaded with Division I-A talent. They're the expansion team "Most Likely to Succeed."

• MADISON--90: The Mad Dogs faded down the stretch in 1999, but should benefit from the IFL's new playoff structure.

• STEEL VALLEY--89: The Smash bring an improved lineup into the 2000 season, and West Virginia legend Major Harris as coach.

• TOPEKA--89: Lots of Wildcat and Jayhawk talent. The Knights are better than their pre-season performance at Lincoln last week. But then, who isn't?

• WICHITA--88: The Warlords have a strong roster, but get their trial-by-fire in Week 2, when the Pirates come to town.

• FARGO--87: The Freeze combines a good mix of experienced coaching, local corn-fed linemen, and major college skill players.

• DAYTON--86: Last year, the Skyhawks nearly upset Peoria in Round 1 of the playoffs. But a last-minute coaching change indicates off-season problems.

• MINNESOTA--85: Good news--The Rage have a lot of experience on their roster. Bad news--Much of it is traumatic experience, from the guys who played for Duluth last year.

• BILLINGS--84: The Bolts should compete with Fargo for the Western Conference/Northern Division title, thanks to alumni from strong Montana and Wyoming squads.

• DULUTH--83: The only returnee from 1999 is Jacks QB Bob DeMeyer. Everyone else is in Mankato, LaCrosse, and the Witness Relocation Program.

• FLINT--81: The Flames stocked up on players from area semi-pro teams. They could be a tough team, or at least semi-tough.

• LACROSSE--80: The Rats feature a strong receiving corps, mentored by Kurt Warner's go-to guy, Barnstormer great Willis Jacox. Unfortunately, they play in the league's toughest division.

• CASPER--79: When the Cavalry roster was announced, Chadron State's placement rate doubled.

• BISMARCK--78: Coach Collins Sanders has indoor football experience, but the Blaze may be too reliant on local talent.

• SIOUX CITY--78: Attack fans, players, and coaches shouldn't judge this team based on their first game. Sioux City must endure the initial Lightning strike of the season.

• BLACK HILLS--77: This team appears to benefit from one of the league's softer schedules. Minnesota should play Black Hills, so it could be promoted as "Rage Against the Machine."

• JOHNSTOWN--76: Very few players from "name brand" college programs. Not everyone has learned from Steel Valley's 1999 mistakes.

Week 1 Lines (Home team in CAPS):

Friday, March 31:

• LINCOLN by 24 over Sioux City--Attack QB Jerrod DeGeorgia was once backup to Kurt Warner. But this week, you'll see the Attack defense back up, as Lightning RB Damon Benning runs wild.

Saturday, April 1:

• Erie by 4 over DAYTON--The Skyhawks' only 1999 home loss came in Week 1, when they were blasted by the Bombers. A strong Invader squad could spoil Dayton's Y2K home opener as well.

• MINNESOTA by 3 over Duluth--This is shaping up as the first "blood feud" of the new season. There have been so many changes in Duluth, they've renamed it "New Jack City." And a lot of the Lumberjack refugees now play for the Rage. Both teams have something to prove, making this a good choice for the first "IFL Game of the Week" telecast. [DirecTV: Midwest Sports Channel, tape delay]

• Steel Valley by 6 over FLINT--The Smash have never won a game on the road. This may be their best chance, as they get first crack at the Flames.

• Green Bay by 13 over LACROSSE--The Bombers are a solid road team, going 5-1 in 1999. The defending champions will prove "too much, too soon" for the expansion River Rats.

Sunday, April 2:

• PEORIA by 14 over Madison--In Week 1 of 1999, the Pirates beat the Mad Dogs 36-0, the only shutout in league history. If you haven't seen the berserk crowds at Carver Arena, you get your chance this week, through the magic of RealVideo. [Live video webcast: http://week.com/live/sports.asp]

Monday, April 3:

• BISMARCK by 6 over Sioux Falls--Two expansion teams that appear evenly-matched. Home field advantage tips this one to the Blaze. [Live audio webcasts: www.kfyr.com and www.ksfs.com]

• FARGO by 13 over Black Hills--The Freeze won't let the Machine get started in Week 1. [Live audio webcast: http://kotaradio.rapidnet.com/]

• Wichita by 4 over CASPER--At most positions, the Warlords have the edge on paper. But the game will be played on turf, so the Cavalry may keep it close at home.

Bye: Billings, Johnstown, Topeka

Enjoy this week's games!

Note: Power ratings and game lines are for entertainment purposes only. Opinions expressed are solely those of the author. The author is not affiliated with the Indoor Football League or its teams.

Indoor Football League 1 Stories from March 29, 2000

• Football to the Walls! - OSC Original by Ron Estes

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer(s), and do not necessarily reflect the thoughts or opinions of OurSports Central or its staff.