Playoff Scenarios

[VinnyTheViper]

Two way tiebreaker playoff scenarios:

Columbus Lions - Can only qualify for playoffs in one of several scenarios:
1. Win remaining three games resulting in (6-6) record and Albany goes winless in remaining three games resulting in (5-7) record, Columbus qualifies based upon better record than Albany.
2. Lehigh Valley loses its last two games and Columbus wins its last three, both teams end up with (6-6) records, LV currently owns a +9 point advantage over Columbus, but if Columbus were to win by +10 tomorrow, then Columbus would own tiebreaker over Lehigh Valley. If LV were to lose by less than 8 points tomorrow, then LV would own the tiebreaker over Columbus.
3. If Louisiana wins two more games and ends up with a (6-6) record, with Columbus' best case scenario of a (6-6) record, then Louisiana would own the tiebreaker over Columbus

MAGIC NUMBER to clinch playoff spot = 3

Lehigh Valley - on the verge of clinching spot
1. Can clinch a playoff spot with just one more win and one loss by Louisiana, that would give Lehigh Valley 7 wins with Columbus, Louisiana, and Knoxville all being at 6 or less wins.
2. If Steelhawks win one more game and end up with (7-5) but Louisiana wins out to also end up (7-5), the Steelhawks own the head-to-head with Louisiana so they would get in a two way tie.
3. In the event that Lehigh Valley would lose its last two games, by more than 9 points at Columbus and by more than 2 points at Albany, Lehigh could end up with a (6-6) record and lose the tiebreaker to Alabama, Columbus, Albany, and Richmond, which is likely the nightmare scenario for Lehigh Valley.
4. If Louisiana were to win its remaining three games and finish with a (7-5) record, and Lehigh Valley were to lose its last two and end up with a (6-6) record, then Louisiana would get the nod.

MAGIC NUMBER to clinch playoff spot = 2


Alabama Hammers - on the verge of clinching spot
1. Can clinch home field (#1) throughout the playoffs with 2 wins.
2. Can clinch first round home playoff game (#2) with one more win as long as it is against Richmond.
3. Can clinch a playoff spot (#3) with one more win if it is against Louisiana or Knoxville, then Louisiana, Knoxville and Columbus can not match Alabama's win total, Alabama owns tiebreaker over Lehigh Valley.
4. Alabama still qualifies for playoffs in no worse than the (#4) spot in the event that Hammers lose their final three games as long as the final loss to Louisiana is less than 41 points.

MAGIC NUMBER to clinch home field = 2
MAGIC NUMBER to clinch home 1st round playoff game = 1 (WIN over Richmond)
MAGIC NUMBER to clinch playoff spot = 1 (Any Louisiana LOSS)

[raidersradio]

Here's how wacky the league is this year: Columbus can still get a home playoff game.

If Richmond, Albany, Lehigh, Louisiana, and Columbus all finish at 6-6 the tiebreaker would be a mini-conference of common games among the five teams. Albany and Columbus would each be 5-4 in the mini conference, the Raiders 4-4, and Lehigh and Louisiana each 3-4. The latter two would be eliminated, the Raiders would get the 4 seed, and the Albany-Columbus tie would revert to head to head. In this scenario, Columbus would win thanks to their season ending sweep of the Panthers and get the 2 seed.

Of course, Columbus could still finish 6th too. Crazy stuff. The next three weeks will be very interesting.

[VinnyTheViper]

Equally crazy is a scenario where all four teams making the playoffs end up with a 7-5 record:

Alabama loses all three of its remaining games (7-5)
Richmond beats Alabama but Loses to Louisiana (7-5)
Albany beats Lehigh Valley and Columbus once (7-5)
Louisiana wins all three remaining games (7-5)
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Lehigh Valley loses to Albany and misses the playoffs (6-6)
Columbus wins one game against Albany and misses the playoffs (5-7)


Now, I do not think that this suggested scenario has a snowball's chance in ... of actually happening, but this is why nobody is locked into the playoffs at this point. I have no idea what the playoff tiebreakers are in a three or four way tie because there are still head to head games left to play.


If I had to guess at this point, I would say that the most likely playoff combinations will look like one of the following:

Lehigh Valley (#4) at Alabama (#1)
Richmond (#3) at Albany (#2)

-or-

Lehigh Valley (#4) at Alabama (#1)
Albany (#3) at Richmond (#2)

[VinnyTheViper]

Alabama Hammers clinch Home Field throughout the playoffs this weekend if:

Alabama beats Richmond
Columbus beats Albany


Alabama Hammers clinch one home game in the playoffs this weekend if:

Alabama beats Richmond
Albany beats Columbus

I believe the Alabama Hammers have clinched at least a playoff spot, I can find no scenario where the Hammers don't win the tiebreakers in every instance.