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Post by bectond » Tue Aug 28, 2007 9:34 pm

I doubt the league would assigned players based on the region in which they live. USA basketball will most likely run an academy in which the top 25 to 30 High School Juniors and Seniors will attend. High school and College basketball will continue on as normal just without the Blue chip players. The kids at the academy will focus more on technical drills to prepare for international U-18competition. USA basketball and the NBA want the top American players to be able to play both the American and the international styles at the highest levels.

The NCAA is about to legislate a new rule which states - that if a player attends college and plays NCAA basketball he may not enter the NBA draft until after his sophomore or Junior year (Like Baseball does). This will cause many players to enter the D-League due to the way the collective bargaining agreement is laid out. Players are resticted from signing a long term deal in which they will turn 36 during the course of the deal. If a 19 year old enters the NBA his 1st contract will last 5 years making him 23 at the conclusion of the deal. If the player is elite he'll sign a max deal for 6 addtional years making him 29 when the deal expires. In order to get another max level 6 year deal the player would have to be 29 years of age. If he was 30 or 31 at the end of his max deal, his 2nd max deal would only be for 4 or 4 years in length. NBA max level deals increase in value with each passing year, cutting the contract short by just one year would cost the player as much as 30 million. Academy grads would have the choice of attending college or going to the D-League for a year before entering the draft just like every other high school student. However, if the player were all-star caliber attending college would not make sense from a business perspective.

I believe most of team USA's U-18 team will select the D-League route along with a few high school types that are also elite and those that did not have the grades to attend college.

I'm sure another entity will sponsor teams in the manner that you have laid out due to the deterioration of the public school system. However, it will most likely be a shoe manufacturer and the the NBA. I don't think the current Prep school model will last much longer, I see prep schools of the future recruiting kids out of middle school. How they will work in combination with the NBA's academy, the D-League and the NCAA I don't know.
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Post by Pounder » Wed Aug 29, 2007 4:05 pm

[quote=""ChumpDumper""]Yeah, that will fly.[/quote]

While I'd like an elaboration of this statement, let me set something up for you.

If the NBA starts telling kids that the primary route to the NBA is through the D-League rather than college, what do you think will happen?

I think a good number of kids get the message. Whether the fans follow or not is irrelevant to me.

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Post by ChumpDumper » Wed Aug 29, 2007 4:52 pm

I don't believe that's what the NBA will tell kids at all. Also, there is way too much money involved in college basketball for the NCAA to just roll over and give up and way too many advantages for the average future NBA prospect to pass it up.

The very young D-Leaguer will be the kid who can't get into college or overestimated his chances at getting drafted.

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Post by Pounder » Wed Aug 29, 2007 6:28 pm

The NCAA is already implementing sanctions for schools failing to meet academic standards. The schools are already seen in many cases by large numbers of student bodies as cow-towing to athletics. Moreover, Myles Brand has already had to answer to Congress regarding whether athletic departments should be tax-exempt given the massive revenues for the basketball tournament and the gist of their other major activities.

If the NCAA asserts their business acumen, there's going to be trouble one way. If they continue to follow through with toughening things up on the recruit end, there will probably be a little trouble in the other direction. The NCAA has a balancing act to complete, and the NBA need only look to San Antonio to figure out that the system is antiquated.

So don't be surprised if the NCAA encourages the NBA.

BTW... major missing component in my outline. Euro teams with the youth programs also have academies. This may be where the prep schools come in, but how does that help Sacramento? The academies really need to be where the NBA teams are.

Also, bec... I know US Soccer has the Bradenton Academy. It's a poor idea, frankly. I'd rather have the kid training with the professionals in order to blood him, and learn "my" system vice learning through AAU and the all-star gig. That way, the NBA might even have a few more teams like Phoenix... or Princeton or the 1977 Blazers or Showtime Lakers.

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Post by bectond » Wed Aug 29, 2007 7:11 pm

[quote=""ChumpDumper""]I don't believe that's what the NBA will tell kids at all. Also, there is way too much money involved in college basketball for the NCAA to just roll over and give up and way too many advantages for the average future NBA prospect to pass it up.

The very young D-Leaguer will be the kid who can't get into college or overestimated his chances at getting drafted.[/quote]

College coaches are one main ones pushing for reform. The blue chippers are attending college for only one semester under the current system. The 2nd term starts in Feb., the tourney is in March and they drop out of classes in early April to prepare for the June draft. The blue chippers will cause a schools graduation rates to drop and it sends the wrong message to the general public and student body. The NBA along with USA basketball will be placing the top prospects in an academy during their final two years of high school anyway. Why not have these guys transition directly to the NBA, they will have already had the best coaching money can buy. Why force them to study under the tutelage of a hack when they will most likely know more than the college coach by the age they are ready to attend college..

The top student athletes will go directly pro because it's just not in college basketballs best interest to continue with the current system. The NBA does not want to invest money on an unproven youngster, therefore the only sensible thing to do is have those players play a year in the D-League against undrafted college Seniors and players parked at the back of NBA benches. After one year, the player can enter the draft or return to the D-league for a second season of seasoning. All the NBA has to do is come up with the right financial package to inspire these kids to make the jump. Most likely a salary and an annuity (in case they don't pan out).
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Post by ChumpDumper » Wed Aug 29, 2007 7:20 pm

So college coaches are pushing for reforms that will eliminate college basketball?

I don't think that is true, nor do I think that schools will want to trash the half billion dollars a year that comes to them from CBS to cover the tournament.

Maybe if the money somehow disappears at the time the next contract negotiations come around, something will happen. I seriously doubt it.

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Post by bectond » Wed Aug 29, 2007 8:01 pm

[quote=""ChumpDumper""]So college coaches are pushing for reforms that will eliminate college basketball?
[/quote]


Go back and read my post, I never said college basketball will be eliminated.
I said the blue chips won't attend college in the future and IMOthe nba should can high stakes college basketball.(because they go a poor job of developing players).

Do you really believe the current system makes sense? Attend class Sept-Oct, Travel Nov-Mar, Withdraw in April to work-out with a trainer. Dude, this system won't last, it does not have a chance. Guys are going to have to commit to a program for two or three years, and most great players will not do that. Each year they attend college is an additional year added to the amount of years they have to wait until free agency.
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Post by ChumpDumper » Wed Aug 29, 2007 8:16 pm

[quote=""bectond""]Go back and read my post, I never said college basketball will be eliminated.
I said the blue chips won't attend college in the future and IMOthe nba should can high stakes college basketball.(because they go a poor job of developing players).

Do you really believe the current system makes sense? Attend class Sept-Oct, Travel Nov-Mar, Withdraw in April to work-out with a trainer. Dude, this system won't last, it does not have a chance. Guys are going to have to commit to a program for two or three years, and most great players will not do that. Each year they attend college is an additional year added to the amount of years they have to wait until free agency.[/quote]Well, they can't join the NBA, and the D-League compensation is crap compared to a full ride at a Division I program, to say nothing of the facilities, fan support, national exposure, etc.

As long as the money is there, the system will be there. We'll see if the money is still there in 2010 when the NCAA contract is renewed.

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Post by rams80 » Wed Aug 29, 2007 9:09 pm

Personally, I think the real problem in the system is the existence of an industry that evaluates and rates the talent of kids as young as middle-school age.

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Post by Pounder » Thu Aug 30, 2007 2:16 am

Both systems are doing that, rams. You've seen USC recruiting, right?

It's inevitable.

America is the only country trying to hold teenagers as kids until 18. Maybe it's time to grow up on that account.

I have entertained some testimony that the Euro system POSSIBLY weeds kids out too early. There are 8 levels of English football (not even counting the "beer leagues" IIRC), so the once dismissed have a possible fall back or 12. Does basketball need to account for growth into the 20s? Possibly.

No system is perfect, otherwise America would have made a massive switch already. Mind you, there is a pervasive one... think youth soccer clubs in America, and understand that the concept has spread to more sports and is being entertained by the majors. The money to be made, in the right circumstances, is rather stunning, up to and including traveling parties for tournaments that rival at least the mid-level football bowl games. I'm not the biggest fan of that system, but you have to respect the potential it has to put many daggers in school ball.

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