What is going on in Edmonton?

[skippy]

It appears that the Northern League has quite a mess happening in Edmonton. After reading the articles in the Edmonton Sun, I can't see this team lasting beyond next year if they don't change ownership.
Anyone from Edmonton care to comment?

[E5]

Apparently the city has an "ironclad" five year lease, and Orlich is intent on seeing it through.

The mess that the Cracker-Cats created is mostly the result of Orlich letting his girlfriend - Erica Cruise - run the team. By most accounts, she is of the female dog variety, and has rubbed everyone from the players to the media to the fans the wrong way.

In a market that has to adjust to AA-independent from AAA, this mess just gave a lot of fans an excuse to bail this year.

If Orlich can shove Cruise out of the spotlight and let the team itself be the story, Edmonton should recover.

[BruceB]

All I know about what's happening in Edmonton comes from the two above posts, but that's enough to be able to reasonably predict that problems there aren't going to go away. First, the fact that this guy is letting his girlfriend run the team all but proves that he looks at it as some kind of toy which he need not take seriously. That she is apparently incompetent doing it (and arrogant about it) is almost secondary.

The bigger question is what the Northern League is doing THAT far north in the first place. While Edmonton is certainly a large market (especially for an Indy league), the travel costs have got to be killing them and every NL team that has to travel up there. Also, the current tax structure and value of the Canadian dollar is hurting every sports team up there competing in leagues with American teams. It's certainly not something I'd want to invest any money in right now...I'd rather buy into a Canadian Junior hockey team, and that wouldn't necessarily be a bed of roses, either.

I think it's a classic example of a league looking at a large city and figuring, "If we only get even a small percentage of that population coming to our games there, we'll do fine." It's not that simple, and such a view is cockeyed optimism at best. If a PCL team couldn't survive in Edmonton (or Calgary) with subsidized player salaries, how can an independent league make a go of it when they're responsible for all costs involved?

[nlfan]

All I know about what's happening in Edmonton comes from the two above posts, but that's enough to be able to reasonably predict that problems there aren't going to go away.

That's hardly enough to cover the subject.

In my site's Cracker-Cats forums we discussed this at length (and ad naseum) for over a month (and 100 posts). Several articles from the local papers were quoted. Two postings on a forum are hardly enough.

There's more to the story than just "Girlfriend Gone Wild." That's what the local sports press took up as the cause --especially the Edmonton Sun!!

More background, different stories

Having been to Edmonton last month, talked with some fans there, argued (in my forums) long and hard about how "Dan isn't going to sell," and recent conversations with front office staff (no, not Erica), things were not all as they were portrayed. There were a lot of problems and no one person was responsible. More interesting is that most people in Edmonton probably didn't know anything happened at all.

Next season the C-Cats will be back. They will do better since all the theatrics of the past season will be gone. They'll also have learned from all the mistakes of this season.

The bigger question is what the Northern League is doing THAT far north in the first place. While Edmonton is certainly a large market (especially for an Indy league), the travel costs have got to be killing them and every NL team that has to travel up there. Also, the current tax structure and value of the Canadian dollar is hurting every sports team up there competing in leagues with American teams.

More news you can use...

1. Not all NoL teams have to travel up there. This season lead to a schedule that's only balanced within divisions. Each team has one team they don't play on the road in the other division (for example St. Paul didn't play in Calgary and Edmonton didn't play in St. Paul).

2. The current value of the Canadian dollar is doing VERY well against the U.S. The U.S. has fallen quite a bit against nearly ALL international currencies.

3. Taxes in Alberta may not be all that much higher than in the U.S. Unlike Winnipeg (and several other provences) there's no PST, just the national GST. Manitoba has a 7% PST making basic sales taxes there to around 15%.

Alberta, thanks to all the oil, is a lot more like Texas than Quebec (--they have personal income taxes but in 2001 they made it a flat 10%). Corporate tax rates have fallen fallen 15.5% (2001) to 12.5% (2003; may be 11.5% today). And NoL players aren't subject to the NHL Player Tax which (appears) to apply to both home and visiting players.

4. The owners of the Alberta teams, as part of the deal DO have to subsidize the travel of visiting teams ($50K per team or something like that). Edmonton has a facility that, with a successful marketing strategy should be able to get the 3,500 people a night needed to reach profitiability --in spite of the distance.

5. One benefit of the NoL is it is a short season league and doesn't schedule games in April. A season that's mainly during warmer weather will help reduce losses that the PCL Trappers may have had due to blizzards and sub-zero (Celcius) playing conditions few would want to endure for a ballgame.

6. The Winnipeg Goldeyes are one of the (if not THE) most successful franchises in all independent baseball. They were first in average attendance for all Indy teams this season --including ALL the Atlantic League teams. Clearly the Canadian dollar, GST, PST, etc. aren't hurting them much at all.

I think it's a classic example of a league looking at a large city and figuring, "If we only get even a small percentage of that population coming to our games there, we'll do fine." It's not that simple, and such a view is cockeyed optimism at best. If a PCL team couldn't survive in Edmonton (or Calgary) with subsidized player salaries, how can an independent league make a go of it when they're responsible for all costs involved?

Playing the (Population) Percentages

First, the "percentage" of the population is exactly how the NoL has chosen locations. Until recently the minimum population was 100K. These days they tend to be more suburban (KCK, Gary, Joliet) than the small cities chosen at the start (Duluth, Sioux Falls, Sioux City).

With a population larger than Winnipeg and a fairly modern facility located in an area with a very strong (booming?) economy and growing population, it's not the risk some may think. If they only need to draw 3,500 a game that works out to less than 0.5% of the metropolitan area. Compare that to 2.5% target used by the NoL initially (2,500 per night vs. the 100K min. population). I'm sure that Dan did his due diligence and figured it was an acceptable risk.

NoL Alberta: Season 2

There's no question there's a risk, but the even failure of the Trappers came after a many years of success. The loss of that team had many factors. The "mess" in Edmonton is over. Mel & Co. have moved on. Dan & Co. are working towards next season. Even the team has some stability with the continued field management of Bevington and return of "Capt. Canada: 'Stubby' Clapp."

The Alberta Experiment will continue. Most people think the real problems may remain in Calgary which averaged 1,197 and plays in a very old stadium nowhere near as desireable as Telus Field. At least they too have a full offseason to get their house in order.

League of Cockeyed Optimists

Much the same "gloom & doom" was said of the Northern League when it was started. Nearly everyone thought --many were certain-- it would fail --miserably. So excuse us if we fans of the NoL start by being a little overly optimistic about some things --and I've been around since the beginning (Saints pre-season 1993).

They may still fail. But one season is not enough to write them off.

[BruceB]

When I got an email notifying me that my post last night had been responded to, I almost expected the worst. Instead, you wrote one of the most reasoned things I've ever seen on the OSC message boards. I haven't followed the indy leagues in North America this year because I've been covering Mexican League ball for OSC. As you can probably concur, it can get you wrapped up a bit.

I'll have to take your word on a lot of things because it probably wouldn't make sense to wade through all the posts on Edmonton on your website. While I agree the Canadian dollar is doing much better against U.S.currency, it still is (I think) worth about 83 cents to $1US, which remains a disadvantage. I'd like to share your optimism that Edmonton's ownership has learned their lesson, but we'll all have to wait and see. As mentioned, I'm not really familiar with the details and in fact just logged on to the message boards yesterday for the first time since March, so I've obviously missed a lot. Having been in both sports management and sports media, having the writers and 'casters against you is NOT a good thing. If that's the case in Edmonton, they'll have a lot of work to do to change perceptions.

Finally, I am a big fan of independent ball myself, and that's a big reason why I chose to cover the Mexican League instead of something easier like the PCL for OSC. I've now done both, and the LMB is far more enjoyable. I used to call Grays Harbor Gulls games on the radio back in the 90's, and got so caught up in it I invested in the team before the next season...and about two months before they folded and went on the road for the rest of the year. It cost me a nice little bundle, but, hey, you live and learn. I think the NL started something great, and hope they continue in that vein. Marv Goldklang and Mike Veeck had the right idea in giving minor league ball back to the fans.

Have fun! Summer doesn't last forever.

[nlfan]

When I got an email notifying me that my post last night had been responded to, I almost expected the worst. Instead, you wrote one of the most reasoned things I've ever seen on the OSC message boards.

First I must thank you for that complement. In my forums my responses have been taken to be "long winded." Reading that felt good since usually the length of my "point by point" replies causes many to "roll their eyes" instead of actually replying in kind. Given that you've had some "professional" experience I guess you can appreciate it more than most.

Dealing with Loonies (and Twoonies)

In my trips to Canada I find that, aside from the GST/PST and gas, prices are not all that different than here in the U.S. for meals and rooms. It just takes a little time to deal with the exhange rate when you first see the numbers. I had the same feeling when I've been in the UK except there the numbers are much the same (in pounds Sterling) though the exchange rate means they cost 50-80% more.

Been there, done that, bought the T-shirt, built website to show how to do it

Traveling the NoL is something I've done from the beginning. Believe me I know how much it can cost after seeing over 160 on the road --and I just paid off the last of my expenses from going to Alberta last month. It's also something my site's all about.

Summer's over. Post season for a few of us isn't.

[HeadFirst]

Rest assured, NLFan (a.k.a. Bill): Long-winded posts, if not full of vitriol, are indeed read by those of us who have managed to escape the modern sound-bite-length attention span.

Congrats on the long-lasting success of your website, by the way. It's frequently a good read.