Easiest scenario -- If they each win in regulation once.
It would be Hamilton.
37 non-shootout wins to 35 for Manitoba.
Keep in mind that Lake Erie has a possibility of 98 points. Manitoba and Hamilton have a possible total of 97 if either wins out.
A three way tie could get trickier.
http://theahl.com/qualification-rules-s11572
Quote:
Following are the tiebreaking procedures used in the event of a tie in the standings following the completion of the regular season. When a tie among three or more teams is broken resulting in a two-team tie, the original tiebreaking method is used.
Between two teams:
a) wins (excluding shootouts)
b) points in season series between teams
c) goal differential
d) goals scored in season series between teams
e) intra-conference points percentage
Among three or more teams:
a) wins (excluding shootouts)
b) points percentage in combined season series
c) goal differential
d) goal differential in combined season series
e) intra-conference points percentage
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