Goodbye MLS

[jwalters]

Okay first off I am not claiming to be a soccer expert. I don't even like the MLS. I like college, USL, and indoor. I have got to say this though. Signing Beckham for $250 million over five years is the dumbest thing I have ever seen or heard of. Sit and think about this for a while. $50 million per season for soccer. That is much more than any MLB player makes. Look by and large Americans don't like soccer. The game is too slow and too low scoring and most don't understand the off side rule. Pele only helped the NASL for a while but ultimately paying outlandish salaries killed that league. The NASL commissioner Howard Samuels even said he had never seen men who loved blowing money as much as NASL owners. But they spent nothing that could compare to this total.
The MLS was founded as a fiscally responsible league. Cost control could equal stability. This was partially true. Despite the fact that the league was not making money, because Americans don't want to watch soccer, the league was not losing as much as the NASL did. Throw that out the window.
For the LA Galaxy to pay Becks salary alone it would take an average attendance of 58,000 plus at every home game. That is of course before sponsorship money but still you have to sell tickets and the HDC only seats 27,000. Even if you sold $25 million in sponsorships you would still have to sell 29,000 tickets on average. Remember you have still got to cover everyone elses salaries and expenses. It can't happen.
This ignorant act will create a temporary increase in interest but that will fade quickly and all you will have left is the NASL 21 century. Low scoring, bloated salaries, and empty stadiums. Also consider that in years past 25% of all people that go to an MLS game on average get in for free. That is based on the leagues own figures. You can find that story linked to www.kenn.com look in the MLS attendance figures.
I am not upset. Frankly I'll be glad when the MLS is gone I'm sick of people trying to sell soccer as a major league sport and I'm sick of rich guys dumb enough to repeat history's mistakes. This is good for the USL and MISL because they will get an influx of talent when the MLS dies. Not that he needs the money but I hope for Becks sake that those five years are guaranteed because the league won't live to see the end of that contract.

[jayme2008]

Okay first off I am not claiming to be a soccer expert. I don't even like the MLS. I like college, USL, and indoor. I have got to say this though. Signing Beckham for $250 million over five years is the dumbest thing I have ever seen or heard of. Sit and think about this for a while. $50 million per season for soccer. That is much more than any MLB player makes. Look by and large Americans don't like soccer. The game is too slow and too low scoring and most don't understand the off side rule. Pele only helped the NASL for a while but ultimately paying outlandish salaries killed that league. The NASL commissioner Howard Samuels even said he had never seen men who loved blowing money as much as NASL owners. But they spent nothing that could compare to this total.
The MLS was founded as a fiscally responsible league. Cost control could equal stability. This was partially true. Despite the fact that the league was not making money, because Americans don't want to watch soccer, the league was not losing as much as the NASL did. Throw that out the window.
For the LA Galaxy to pay Becks salary alone it would take an average attendance of 58,000 plus at every home game. That is of course before sponsorship money but still you have to sell tickets and the HDC only seats 27,000. Even if you sold $25 million in sponsorships you would still have to sell 29,000 tickets on average. Remember you have still got to cover everyone elses salaries and expenses. It can't happen.
This ignorant act will create a temporary increase in interest but that will fade quickly and all you will have left is the NASL 21 century. Low scoring, bloated salaries, and empty stadiums. Also consider that in years past 25% of all people that go to an MLS game on average get in for free. That is based on the leagues own figures. You can find that story linked to www.kenn.com look in the MLS attendance figures.
I am not upset. Frankly I'll be glad when the MLS is gone I'm sick of people trying to sell soccer as a major league sport and I'm sick of rich guys dumb enough to repeat history's mistakes. This is good for the USL and MISL because they will get an influx of talent when the MLS dies. Not that he needs the money but I hope for Becks sake that those five years are guaranteed because the league won't live to see the end of that contract.


First the major league soccer is in great shape in terms of sponcership season tickets etc.Mls is going no where yes its true there is a league in trouble that is usl montreal,vancouver.rochester portland all want out.All 4 are expected to be in mls within the the next 10 years.

[Pounder]

Both of you, relax.

MLS will not pay David Beckham $250 million. More like $10 million per year to play AND a cut of jersey sales. The rest of the $50 million per year, IF it materializes, comes from adidas increasing the sponsorships they already give Becks. Actually, I wonder if that will even be an increase for adidas, because in the current contract with Real Madrid, the Galacticos pocket half of Spice Boy's endorsements.

Kind of sly for people around MLS (nobody in MLS has acknowledged numbers yet) to throw that $250 million around, however. It got the press it was intended to get.

The belief behind this: soccer fans in America following Europe or Latin America were generally NOT going to MLS or USL games. MLS just gave those people reason to take notice. WOMEN will force men to buy tickets when Becks comes to town. In other words, all of you listening to the naysayers on sports talk radio the last 24 hours aren't even close to being the targets of this effort... though some of you are married to some of those targets. In other words, support for soccer has grown in America over the last 10 years, it grows in ones and twos, a lot of that is visible via Spanish language channels and media outside the mainstream, therefore the mainstream won't acknowledge its existence until it has no choice.

That doesn't mean this gambit will work. The Galaxy do not get 500% better because Becks is on the roster. It means little, performance-wise, for a team needing more defense. Galaxy need 3-4 more players, and I'm unsure if this will overcome that need, and I'm unsure if Alexi Lalas knows what to do next. That's not the point. Additionally, Becks is only decent for a couple more years. However, his face is worth a lot more than Pele's legs were 30 years ago.

BTW, and I say this as a diehard Portland Timbers fan, the USL would barely notice improvement if MLS dies. More likely, lower levels in Europe and good Mexican teams will benefit more. USL has to improve their pay first, and outside of 2-3 cities, that's going to take a lot of work and figuring out their chicken-and-egg issues.

HOWEVER, these comments about USL in trouble are another matter. The cities Jayme mentions don't really "want out." Rochester only wants to move up if MLS will give Frank DuRoss a break on the franchise fee, and MLS is no longer desperate. Vancouver talks about being "at the top level of Canadian soccer," and I'm still waiting for their stadium proposal to get a green light. Portland is the darling of many people wanting to see an active fan base in MLS, but the stadium situation, lack of support from the city, and lack of stated potential investors means the Timbers aren't going anywhere anytime soon. Montreal's owner is getting going on a new stadium that's probably too small for MLS, and had been putting down the notion of joining MLS until Toronto FC was admitted, but has yet to be heard jumping into the "going MLS" fray- I'm guessing the stadium investment is the last of the money Joey Saputo wants to spend out-of-pocket.

[Pounder]

UPDATE:

Yesterday, the Galaxy sold 2,000 season tickets. Becks isn't even dropping in until July or August.

Yesterday, expansion Toronto FC, in the other conference, sold 600 season tickets.

That's not a normal January sales figure.

That reminds me. I was in England with a group of 30 Timbers fans back in April. Within 60 hours, we were using the "Everything in England sounds more important" mantra. Therefore, when I hear the bold pronouncements come from some quarters about this signing, I'm just reminded of that mantra. Given the number of ex-pat English running around the American game, it's just something I brush off anymore.

[jwalters]

Remember one thing also he will be playing in Los Angeles. People in LA don't have to pay to see celebreties. That is what most people from the other cities are going to see is someone who is supposed to be a big star. Once they see him they won't come back. This is the same thing that happened with Pele. Beckham will be popular out of curiosity for a while but after awhile that interest will dry up and will it really be worth it to Adidas to pay him more money for being less popular. Think about it. He is the biggest sports star in Europe. A market area of 710,000,000 people and he is coming to North America where he will be a minor league sports star in a market of 350,000,000 including Canada. Is this a sound investment for the sponsors. No, it can not succeed.
History works in cycles just like business. Most people believe that the leading cause of the NASL's death was the lack of Americans on rosters and the uncontrolled salaries. So, MLS puts limits on Imports and salaries and the league still doesn't take off. Now we are bringing in a foreign star and increasing salaries. It didn't work 30 years ago and it won't work now because no matter how many sponsors are interested now if there aren't butts in the seats and people watching on t.v. they will pull their money.

[Pounder]

Hmmmm...

Here's the thing- Cosmos of the NASL bring in Pele 31 years ago, the league goes nuts, it eventually helps the Cosmos get into Giants Stadium (sort of), the Cosmos go nuts signing other talent... and nobody else could keep up with that. Most teams died trying. No salary cap whatsoever, renting stadia, et cetera. The league didn't merely die of overspending, it died of keeping up with the Joneses.

Here, with MLS, there's a salary cap, the rule allowing Beckham basically allows one exception per team (though the exception can be traded), 7 teams will be playing in 6 soccer-specific stadiums and getting all the derived income this year, plus one more under construction for New York Red Bulls and two on the drawing board. Nobody is in a position to out-spend everyone else, at least not by a wide margin. Teams can overcome a one-marquee-player club.

Apples and oranges.

Beckham is a PR magnet and adds sponsors for a year or two, a couple years after Freddy Adu played PR magnet. If nothing else, Galaxy WILL sell jerseys, and those sales won't stop at the borders. MLS has kind of scraped along like this for a while, for an eleven-year-old league, I think MLS can at least see past desperation stage now. Mind you, two other initiatives- Interliga with Mexican clubs and the new youth development programs- may have a much farther-reaching long term effect than Beckham does. We'll see.

One last- it'd be interesting if Galaxy do well enough in 2007 to get into the CONCACAF Champions Cup in 2008, win that, and end up in the World Club Cup at the end of 2008. Not likely, mind you.

[jayme2008]

Overall season tickets are up 25% while season tickets in the usl are down by 5%.

[jwalters]

There seems to be some misunderstanding about my stance on the USL. I simply said I was a USL fan and not an MLS fan. I did not say that the USL was a better operation or anything like that. The truth is all levels of professional soccer in the U.S. and Canada have serious problems. I just simply prefer the USL.

[Pounder]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=aUAxd1irwwng&refer=europe#

Two years paid... essentially. Three to go.