View Full Version : SEHL
Anonymous
11-26-2003, 12:18 PM
Now that the SEHL and the WHA2 have started, here are my thoughts on the state of both leagues. I believe that the WHA2 as far as talent and organization are ahead on both counts. The SEHL is holding it's own and there seem to be some good crowds. I think that Winston-Salem should have at least kept the nickname for the first season but unfortunatly when they did that it really made the league look very minor league. I sense that there is more energy in the crowds with the SEHL at this point.
The WHA2 is a great idea for the feeder system for the new WHA league. I would really like to see the team sites be different but that seems to be the new trend in team web pages. They all look the same with the same format.
I do believe that with Ashville Aces joining the WHA2 next year that they made the correct decision. The SEHL should concentrate on other markets
but I do believe that both organizations are better off from splitting with the ACHL. That league was a joke to say the least. It's really too bad that the ACHL and the WHA2 couldn't merge because I really think that the quality of the talent would be better.
Down here in South Florida, we have the Miami Manatees of the WHA2. Attendence has been at a modest 2,300 per game however I do feel that with the team playing very well and if I read recetnly as high as #2 in the AA-poll that the fans of South Florida will start to notice this team.
Thanks for your time!
Blake
Anonymous
11-26-2003, 01:11 PM
SEHL is still a joke. Four team league .... What a joke. The quality is crap too.
Miami is doing well. How can you expect them to draw well??? There is so much to do in Miami that 2,300 isn't bad at all!
Anonymous
11-27-2003, 10:43 AM
SEHL is still a joke. Four team league .... What a joke. The quality is crap too.
Miami is doing well. How can you expect them to draw well??? There is so much to do in Miami that 2,300 isn't bad at all!
We're not drawing 2,300. 750 seems to be the average paid admission. The average figure is a bit overstated due to opening night.
tidalshark
12-02-2003, 03:06 PM
Down here in South Florida, we have the Miami Manatees of the WHA2. Attendence has been at a modest 2,300 per game however I do feel that with the team playing very well and if I read recetnly as high as #2 in the AA-poll that the fans of South Florida will start to notice this team.
We ranked as high as fourth. The UHL Richmond Riverdogs have been holding down first and the CHL Laredo Bucks second.
As for attendance, the official numbers announced per game:
Nov 8: 2,255
Nov 14: 575
Nov 15: 1,125
Nov 26: 1,126
We haven't yet had a modest 2,300 per game, although that would be nice.
hockeyguru
12-02-2003, 04:09 PM
The UHL's Columbus team is doing awful... They can't be making money with less than 950 fans a game.[/b]
REVVED
12-02-2003, 08:38 PM
They keep scheduling games against the BlueJackets!
George
12-03-2003, 03:20 PM
I think it's important for those who follow minor league hockey to deal with the unmistakable reality that the AA leagues are in serious trouble. All you need to do is to look at the bleak attendance figures to realize the plight of minor league hockey. Currently, the SEHL is averaging about 2,200 per game. The WHA2 doesn't report on attendance figures, but it's not hard to figure out why. In the ECHL, nine teams are below 3,000 average; 18 are below 4,000. In the UHL, two teams are below 2,000 average. The reason: Loss of fan bases brought about by having too many leagues and too many teams playing too many games. Simply put, there isn't enough entertainment dollars to spread over so many leagues, teams and games.
Even the AHL and NHL are not spared this economic reality. Several AHL teams are below the 5,000 line, and Pittsburgh is the most profound, but by no means the only, example of a declining fan base.
Sure, as a hockey fan, I find this very disheartening. But it is reality. As a solution, simply take all of the AA teams drawing below the financial Mendoza line and form a single ECHL-type of nationwide league.
I would like to hear from those of you who attend games and see dwindling attendance, as well as those of you who might have solutions to this problem.
George
12-03-2003, 03:46 PM
There are 71 AA teams, only 23 of which are averaging 4,000 or more per game. Of course, the legitimacy of these numbers is suspect because teams traditionally have played footloose with the accuracy of their attendance numbers. If the average is 3,750, the number of teams increases to 29--certainly enough to form a single AA league.
Why people continue to invest time and money repeatedly putting teams in such cities as Huntsville, Macon, Ashville, and Winston-Salem when time and time again teams continue to fold is beyond me. Those who invest in such enterprises and lose money ought not to be at all surprised. But there's that old saying---A sucker is born every minute.
preeths
12-03-2003, 04:48 PM
To play devil's advocate, remember that minor league hockey attendance traditionally increases after the new year. Also keep in mind that some of the smaller leagues have purposefully kept their costs down to deal with the reality of smaller fan bases in softer markets. Even more important, the economy has shown signs of rebounding, which means more disposable income in fans' pockets. Not all is bleak.
tidalshark
12-03-2003, 06:02 PM
The WHA2 doesn't report on attendance figures, but it's not hard to figure out why.
Actually you can find the average attendance HERE (http://www.usatoday.com/sports/hockey/minors/wha2-0304stats.htm).
The breakdown is as follows:
Game number Alabama Jacksonville Lakeland Macon Miami Orlando
Game 01 3007 9589 3575 2485 2255 5106
Game 02 2452 2126 1500 1112 575 2671
Game 03 2475 ---- 1967 1422 1125 2757
Game 04 2250 ---- ----- ----- 1126 3005
Game 05 972 ---- ---- ----- ----- -----
Chestersdog
12-03-2003, 06:19 PM
A few responses to what I've seen on this thread so far:
The Columbus Stars UHL team did not have to go head-to-head against the Blue Jackets this past Sunday and drew a hearty throng of 922 for a game pitting the top two teams in the Eastern Division. Can't imagine why anyone would want to put a minor league team in a town already with an NHL team - Columbus isn't exactly a hockey hotbed.
That self-proclaimed super AA league, the ECHL, has already driven a few franchises away, including Richmond. Others sure to follow. It's insane to set up a nationwide league at any level of minor league hockey and expect teams to incur cross-country travel costs. Actually, the Renegades folding the best thing to happen to hockey in Richmond. Got a more entertaining UHL squad in a league with just the right number of teams (12).
Hopefully the SEHL makes it so hockey stays in Fayetteville. The Crown Coliseum an outstanding place to watch a hockey game. For whatever reason, hockey interests in Fayetteville historically lukewarm at best to putting a team in the ECHL, where they would have instant rivalries (i.e., Florence, SC). Huntington supposed to join the SEHL for 04-05 at a minimum.
George
12-04-2003, 07:49 AM
There are some myths that need to be addressed. First, although there is a bump in hockey attendance after the new year, the history is that the so-called increase is more marginal than significant. In addition, all that need be done is to compare attendance figures in the ECHL, UHL and CHL over the past five years or so to show an unmistakable and rather dramatic downward trend in attendance. As for keeping costs down, that was a prime driving force behind the now-defunct ACHL, and is driving the SEHL and WHA2. The problem with this is that the fans will not pay $10-$15 per game to see less quality hockey masquerading as AA-level play.
Yes, the economy is rebounding, but unless a team is averaging at least 3,500 fans per game (except in situations where the team owns the arena), that team simply can't continue to bleed, and many teams are bleeding. AA hockey can survive and prosper, but not with 71 teams spread over five leagues. The SEHL is done after this year, and the WHA2's survival depends on the NHL going on strike. That's a thin reed on which to build a league.
We had an ECHL team in my home city for seven years, and during the first three years, the team averaged 6,000. When it folded four years later, the average was 2,800. I wish we had a team here, but the market is dead--just like it is in Macon, Columbus, Huntsville, Birmingham, San Angelo, Port Huron, Richmond, Florence, Miami, Cincinnati, etc. And there is nothing that can be done now to revitalize a money-making fan base in those and other cities. I fear Louisiana is done and the new Texas team in the ECHL--two years in the making--is now at about 4,000 per game, not good for a new team.
Yes, it is bleak. But there is a solution. Simply drop the number of leagues and teams. Pour the effort into making the few prosperous teams survive for an indefinite period. And stop shoving teams into cities that can't sustain or support a team.
hockeyguru
12-04-2003, 12:32 PM
I think for many years these leagues targeted these non-traditional hockey markets because they figured even if they put a crap product on the ice, the fans wouldn't know the difference and would still come out and get drunk and support the team.
Most people in the south now know hockey. Most of the cities that get the lower level leagues have already had ECHL teams and have failed. They know what the good leagues are and what the crap ones are.
Look at Michigan. You don't see us getting anymore expansion pro teams, because we know hockey. Nobody wants to see a bunch of 35 year old washed up players! I'll never watch an ECHL or UHL game. And I find the AHL boring. I prefer Major Junior (OHL) or the CCHA.
tidalshark
12-04-2003, 06:19 PM
As for keeping costs down, that was a prime driving force behind the now-defunct ACHL, and is driving the SEHL and WHA2. The problem with this is that the fans will not pay $10-$15 per game to see less quality hockey masquerading as AA-level play.
Honestly, I don't have a problem with that and neither do a lot of other fans I've talked to. What I have a problem with is the hospitality at the Miami Arena which is definately lacking.
Yes, the economy is rebounding, but unless a team is averaging at least 3,500 fans per game (except in situations where the team owns the arena), that team simply can't continue to bleed, and many teams are bleeding. AA hockey can survive and prosper, but not with 71 teams spread over five leagues. The SEHL is done after this year, and the WHA2's survival depends on the NHL going on strike. That's a thin reed on which to build a league.
I think that the WHA's survival depends on the NHL going on strike. Even if the WHA didn't launch, the WHA2 was going to continue. I don't think that an NHL strike will effect markets like Orlando, Jacksonville and Lakeland, but it's definately going to effect the long term stability of the Manatees.
We had an ECHL team in my home city for seven years, and during the first three years, the team averaged 6,000. When it folded four years later, the average was 2,800. I wish we had a team here, but the market is dead--just like it is in Macon, Columbus, Huntsville, Birmingham, San Angelo, Port Huron, Richmond, Florence, Miami, Cincinnati, etc. And there is nothing that can be done now to revitalize a money-making fan base in those and other cities. I fear Louisiana is done and the new Texas team in the ECHL--two years in the making--is now at about 4,000 per game, not good for a new team.[/quote}
Where is "here" exactly?
[quote]Yes, it is bleak. But there is a solution. Simply drop the number of leagues and teams. Pour the effort into making the few prosperous teams survive for an indefinite period. And stop shoving teams into cities that can't sustain or support a team.
I was playing with Linkin' Park's Meteora CD recently. I finally got the sound fixed on the computer and was able to look at the hybird stuff. What I found interesting in the hybrid section was the band supplying fans with web building tips and graphics. I know that a lot of bands have gone that route lately...Evanescense, for example does something similar via their website, but what struck me as different about Linkin' Park's approach is the ability to place a LP Store on your website and sell team gear.
Think of the simple of beauty of that.
You've suddenly got chain stores out there where you once had only a single retail outlet.
I know that the Capitals put up links to their fan sites and tried to promote that sort of free advertising. Does it work? I dont' t know. But I've not yet seen a hockey team actually offer it's fans a chance to PROMOTE their team by providing them with the building blocks for a website. (Including, BTW, tips on how to promote the thing once you've got it up!)
Is it possible that this sort of increased promotion via the internet could work for minor league hockey? I know it wouldn't really HURT.
In terms of minor league sports, I'm gong to be watching baseball's Fort Myers Miracle this summer as their goal is to increase their average attendance from 1K+ to 3K+ and they honestly believe this is doable.
If it does work for them, maybe some hockey teams in the so called washed out cities should take note of what they are doing. IF they can jump their attendance in by 2K in a market they've been in for 11 years, then they certainly have got the right tools going.
As for the Manatees...I think they are primed to take over the city of Miami. MANY Panthers fans have had it with the team. Now they suddenly have alternative. The problem is the team has not pursued this avenue with an agressive advertising campaign. Prior to the season start they did a lot of a public relation appearances to promote the team, but that's dropped off with the start of the season. NOW is when they really need to get the players out to the schools, the malls, the bars and restaurants, etc. It's sad that they are not doing it.
They are however, relying heavily on word of mouth advertising, and to me that means they really should be making the tools to promote their team available to fans over the internet.
Global-Hockey
12-05-2003, 06:10 AM
The owner of this franchise has TWO folded teams to his credit. The first team was the Waco Wizards of the then WPHL. The league pulled his franchise. The second team he owned but the League folded was in Phoenix. They NEVER played a game before the league took the franchise away from him. So the chances of his team working in Columbus is about good for about 1 year.
Global-Hockey
12-05-2003, 06:12 AM
The owner of this franchise has TWO folded teams to his credit. The first team was the Waco Wizards of the then WPHL. The league pulled his franchise. The second team he owned but the League folded was in Phoenix. They NEVER played a game before the league took the franchise away from him. So the chances of his team working in Columbus is about good for about 1 year.
George
12-05-2003, 08:43 AM
"Here" is Tallahassee, Florida, former home of the ECHL's TigerSharks. In fact, if you look at the history of this league, you will see that in the mid-to-late 1990's, hockey teams dotted the I-10 corridor from Jacksonville to Lafayette. Now, Jax, Mobile, New Orleans, and Baton Rouge are gone. Only Pensacola, Mississippi and the IceGators remain, and their attendance reports are not too promising for the long haul.
When Miami had the Matadors, a friend of mine was the coach. He told me the attendance numbers were inflated from the 1,100 or so reported average. That team lasted one season. The Manatees will suffer a similar fate. Lousy facility in an unfavorable location.
Perhaps Orlando and Jax will have enough numbers to make it beyond this year, but I can't see Macon, Lakeland or Alabama making a go of it. Traditionally, new teams draw the best during the first and second years. If this holds true, then both the SEHL and WHA2 are done after this season. It's simply a game of numbers, and attendance numbers translates to income. And if there aren't enough seats being filled with paying fans, there is not enough income to finance a team.
I believe that after this season, the AA hockey gurus will have enough of a taste of reality to get together and decide how to successfully run a financially sound AA program--and this means doing what I've been advocating for several years and attendance has continued to plummet: drop teams in cities that have repeatedly demonstrated they can't or won't support a team; drop leagues that have so few teams that the few fans they get grow tired of seeing the same jerseys over and over again; aggressively promote and market those few teams that are financially successful (usually, when a team begins to lose its fan base, the first budget item cut is marketing and promotion--a fatal mistake); and cut the number of games to 60 with as many weekend games as possible. The numbers show that whatever attendance growth there is on Saturday is lost, particularly on weekday games.
George
12-08-2003, 09:22 AM
The numbers continue to tell the sad story. Of 70 AA teams in five leagues, 24 are averaging below 3,000 per game; 37 below 3,500. Only 3 teams are over 6,000; 10 over 5,000; 17 over 4,500 and 24 over 4,000. Even with Saturday night's higher attendance numbers, the ECHL average continues to drop. The SEHL doesn't have a team at 3,000; four of the six WHA2 teams are below this Mendoza line; as are 10 of the ECHL teams and 5 of the UHL teams. Somewhere out there, the hockey money folks need to face reality. Because so many teams have played so many home games, these numbers will not spike enough to demonstrate overall AA league financial soundness. If someone out there sees light at the end of the tunnel, please show all of us where that light is. Thanks for reading this. I know you are avid hockey fans or you wouldn't be involved in this message exchange.
George
REVVED
12-08-2003, 09:43 AM
Many places, like Toledo and Johnstown, have arenas that cannot hold more than 3500-5000 people. Here, we have no excuse. The AHL team plays in a 10,000 seat arena and the ECHL team in a 13,000 and yet are near the bottom of the barrell - attendencewise.
Next week, the owners and front office of the Cyclones will meet with the fans and public to try and resolve issues, but the days of soldout crowds may be over.
The media in this town is anti-hockey. Check the news on this site - nothing much (other than negative junk) from the Cincinnati Enquirer. It's all press releases by the teams and out-of-town reports. The Fan Club is raising money for a charity fund ran by the NBC affiliate, but rarely get a score on the 11 o'clock news!
What's a hockey fan to do?!? :cry:
George
12-09-2003, 11:21 AM
Cincinnati, you're not alone. I attended a WHA2 game in Jacksonville's new 16,000-seat auditorium, seeing 3,300 people jammed close together with gaping emptiness throughout is not a pleasant sight. But Lakeland, Macon and Miami are all averaging under 2,000, and Miami Arena seats about 16,000; Macon about 7,500 and Lakeland around the same.
The ECHL has Cincy on the bottom, but look at the nine others with attendance under 3,000. Except for Johnstown, all of the arenas seat 7,500 or more. And I won't even discuss the SEHL, with all teams below 3,000, or the UHL with five of its teams below this mark.
To say the AA situation is bleak is to put it mildly. AA leagues will have to undergo some major reshuffling after this season, or most of the teams and leagues will simply dry up.
Maineiac
12-09-2003, 03:02 PM
My 2 cents worth.
Yes AA hockey is in trouble.
Remember when wrestling was regional (before Vince McMahon)?
Promoters didn't dare try to do shows in another promoters region.
Maybe Minor league hockey needs to be organized in that manner, cut back the number of games from 60 to say 45 or so. Enough to help with promotion and advertising i.e. local news attention. This would help create those rivalries that we fans like so much.
Look at the Junior Hockey Leagues, they don't seem to be pushing out all that far. Not like the ECHL and so forth.
Yes people in the south are ALOT more knowledgeable of hockey, they know what good hockey is and what crap hockey is.
REVVED
12-09-2003, 03:12 PM
With the NHL and AHL heading for CBA problems in the next couple of years, AA hockey may be the highest level for a while. A long work stopage may just be what the doctor ordered for leagues like the ECHL that are "labor happy" for years to come.
Big Chris
12-09-2003, 05:21 PM
I somehow don't see the AHL having a full work stoppage. (I recall the IHL solving any labour problems about 6 months prior to the NHL lockout in 1994 so why not the AHL?)
Don't forget the X-Factor, the return of the WHA next year. If there is indeed a work stoppage word is that many top stars, (and a few past their prime stars,) are jumping to the new WHA next season. That should make for an interesting year next year.
As for AA or A league minor league hockey, I think the only way to make it viable at the start is for NHL teams to own these teams outright and not just have player lease agreements. Minor league hockey is the single biggest risk among minor league sport businesses to get into and because of this having a strong parent club owning the teams is a better option.
BBall Fan
12-09-2003, 07:00 PM
First of all, the AHL WILL play next year regardless of the NHL. Different players union, different CBA.
As for the AA leagues scattered across the country here is my 2 cents worth.
- Have 1 AA league combining the ECHL, CHL and UHL.
- Weed out the bad markets (those that continually lose money and bring the rest of the league down) and more importantly the bad owners. I'm sure there are some decent markets out there with bad ownership groups.
- Regionalize the league (2 or 3 conferences) so that teams aren't crossing the continent and playing huge travel costs. For the stronger markets, they can afford 1 or two plane trips a season where they pick up 4 or 5 road games in a week. The ECHL had the right idea with this but has too many 'bad' teams and doesn't have any teams in the central and midwest areas.
- Drop the number of games to 60-64 per season. The CHL has done this and it has greatly helped their per game attendance. MOST AA teams will lose money if they play at home on a weeknight. Get rid of weeknight games and Sunday games in some markets.
If you could do all of this you would have a very strong AA league.
REVVED
12-09-2003, 07:27 PM
I suggested these things before and they thought I was crazy! (I am, but that's another story-enough about marriage :lol: )
There are a lot of fans around here that would LOVE to have Fort Wayne, Kalamazoo (UHL), and Indy (CHL) back as opponents. With Dayton, Toledo, Columbus, Peoria & Wheeling, it would be a "caged Texas Death match" every night! Get suitable management in Lexington, too, and it would ROCK. :twisted:
SignGuyDino
12-10-2003, 06:19 AM
Everyone knows that weekend dates are preferable. It's not like the owners want weekday dates. Arena managers HATE HATE HATE ice, and won't bend over backwards for hockey teams unless they're proven moneymakers. They will give preferential treatment to concerts, because they make more money for the arena. That's reality, folks.
The problem is that too many league commissioners and owners try to take over the minor league world. This country is just too freaking big for that. They also play too many games in AA hockey.
George
12-10-2003, 10:08 AM
I found the comments by Maineiac, Big Chris, BBall Fan and Sign Guy Dino right on the money. You understand the reasons for AA hockey's decline, but you also see that personalities and ego get in the way of progress. No hockey team or league should look to survive based on an anticipated strike by the NHL. All a strike does is cause fan anger and resentment, and this could reverberate throughout the sport.
Although I prefer a single AA league, just like a single major league and AAA league, but from a practical standpoint, I don't see the CHL or ECHL ever committing to a merger. The UHL has only about three teams worth saving, so those teams could be absorbed by the other two. But once you eliminate weak franchises, I wonder if there are enough teams to support two or three leagues.
NHL ownership is a good idea, but perhaps a too expensive one.
In any event, the AA gurus will have to listen to reason soone or later, or it will be too late for them to make it profitable and, more important, enticing to those who might be willing to invest in viable franchises.
Let's keep the dialogue going, and maybe, just maybe, these comments will be read by the several commissioners and team owners. I would certainly like to hear what they have to say about the state of AA hockey.
George
Big Chris
12-10-2003, 01:21 PM
George, I have to disagree about the affect of a strike or lockout on the popularity of the minors. In 1994 when baseball almost committed suicide by cancelling the World Series A ball and AA ball thrived like never before. The Northern League was an extremely hot ticket in the US and Canadian midwest, (ESPECIALLY Winnipeg and St. Paul.) I think the cities that won't have hockey during the impending lockout will be the angriest while the minor league cities will simply ignore it. (See the spike in popularity the IHL had in 1994-95 during the NHL lockout and the carryover the next season.)
Work stoppages in hockey are never good, but maybe we have way too many minor league teams in hockey as it is. The NHL is badly watered down and in turn the quality of hockey seen in the minors is horrible nowadays. (Although I am liking the 11-10 scores in some of the lesser leagues!)
George
12-10-2003, 03:37 PM
Big Chris, ordinarily I would agree that a stoppage at the major league level would have no effect on minor league teams. However, much has changed since the mid-'90's, particularly economically. In addition, while baseball is America's homegrown sport, hockey is not. I don't believe the NHL ever experienced a significant work-stoppage, but I do know that, unlike baseball, hockey fans first come to learn of the sport via TV. Perhaps I'm overreacting, but the only good thing for hockey is for the game to be played. Of course, the diehard fan will attend minor league games regardless, but the attendance figures show an unmistakable decline in the number of those fans. I would have never imagined the IceGators drawing only 3,400 or so fans, or the Everblades around 5,000. Yet, this is happening. And you recall that last year, the IceGators came close to closing up shop; this year may be the straw.
The last thing we need to see is anything that could potentially anger fans enough to find another outlet for their dwindling entertainment dollar.
I know I sound like a doomsdayer, but I'd rather be that than looking back and saying how great AA hockey was while we had it. Maybe our dialogue, as well as the very knowledgable comments from the others, will spark discussion in the halls of league officials and team owners. And if this should come to pass (I'm also a bit of an idealist), I would hope that the dedicated, diehard, knowledgable fans will be included. Who knows, maybe the fans can come up with a plan that will save the sport at the AA level. It doesn't seem any of the leaders have been able to do so.
George
SignGuyDino
12-11-2003, 02:04 AM
Funny, I remember when the then WWF (now WWE) were doing ads saying "We never go on strike" or something like that when baseball shut down in 1994. It did get some positive impact for them.
I think the pending NHL lockout will cause a one or two year spike for the established northern markets, and maybe kill the newer southern markets.
The big winner of a lockout is clearly going to be the NBA, and Stern and the players union are wise as hell starting negotiations right now, and stating they want to wrap up a long term deal by season's end. I guess they finally figured out what the NFL and the players figured out: Real labor peace=Big $$$.
I know this is a hockey topic, but the minor league basketball leagues that remain after this year will probably benefit, too.
George
12-16-2003, 11:03 AM
It is well-known that team officials regularly inflate their attendance figures. But who are they fooling? Only themselves. Now I understand that some teams showing an average of more than 3,000 per game are on the ropes, such as Columbia and Louisiana in the ECHL. As for those of you who attend SEHL games, obviously there aren't enough of you, and those of you who are avid fans will have to look elsewhere after the league folds, which it will do, along with the WHA2. Unfortunate, but reality is what it is.
The ECHL and UHL will need to regroup in order to save the few successful franchises. Many team owners are just pouring money down the drain.
I suggest you read the Attendo-Meter column by Hans on the inthecrease website. He has a different view than mine about the Mendoza line, below which no team can survive. He says that number is 2,000; I say it's 3,000. History tells me that teams that fail to reach 3,000 average attendance do not survive very long. If you check the various AA leagues, you will see more than a third of all teams below 3,000. That's not a mark of success. In fact, more teams are below 3,500 than above it. And we all know that most, if not all, of the numbers are inflated.
When you check the attendance for the ECHL, CHL, UHL, WHA2 and SEHL, see how many there are over 6,000, then 5,000, 4,500, 4,000, etc. You will see the unmistakable pattern. And it's not anywhere near a good one.
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