Trouble For 2010?

[jackalsfan]

I know it is very early in the season, but for some reason Im concerned with 2010.

In 2009 we lost Atlantic City and Ottawa. I think we may be losing more in 2010. Last night, the American Defenders drew sub 1000. Their average is below 1200.

I also heard rumors of Worcester splitting after the season.

Question: Does anyone know if this is true? Does New Hampshire have a lease for 2 years so they will be guaranteed in the league next year.

Cant operate a league with five teams...its poor.

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Fan Site of the New Jersey Jackals

[OttawaBallFan]

Good to see you again JackalsFan.

I think it may still be a bit early in the year. Maybe it's the recession?

I've decided to check the data since 2005 and see if attendances are affected early in the season. That's what databases are for after all. I checked attendance of all games until June 10.

Quebec. In 2008, 2156 in first 13 games, almost 800 below eventual average for the whole season of 2950 (I'm missing some data). This year, almost 2700 so far so in some ways, the Caps are ahead of last year's pace.

Brockton. So far this year down by about 700 compared to first seven games last year.

Your own Jackals always had poor attendances early in the season. Maybe you can explain it. This year, they are doing better than usual. They may end up averaging 2500.

Worcester. Also poor starts to season the last two seasons. Both years, their average was off by about 500 in the first 7 and 10 games. This year, that average is up so far.

Nashua. This is the team that I was worried about. Down so far by 300. But it's only six games.

Sussex. Down by 250 this year over last year's season average. Traditionally, they too have a harder time at the beginning of the season.

Three teams with lower attendance so far. Only a handful of games, kids will be off soon. I wouldn't worry except Brockton whose attendance is off by quite a bit.

I wouldn't put much weight into rumors right now. I had said last September that Nashua was gone this year after hearing such rumors. Then again, I had heard rumors about the Rapidz owner selling the team back to the league and that more or less is what happened.

The Can-Am obviously wouldn't operate with five teams, they'd go to four, which would be bad. Speaking of rumors, did you see another post I made recently about maybe the league having ten teams next year?

No news to report here in Ottawa but there is a group working on the problem. We hope to be back in 2010.

[Skyhawker]

key word is yet^

anywho, the attendance will go up, for example here in sussex. kids dont get out of school til the 22 of june. once they are out. the attendance should see an increase. and eric gagne. he is returning, he'll bring a crowd to games that he is at. i know if the teams market him coming to town. a boatload of people would show up to the game. just to see him.

[richvide0]

I think some of it has to do with the cool and rainy weather the Northeast has had. The weekends have been nice but people are looking for a nice night out in the summer weather. Hasn't kicked in yet.

The Defenders uniforms are ridiculous. They don't look like a professional baseball team. I'm not sure that translates into worse attendance but I don't like watching a team in silly outfits.

[OttawaBallFan]

Now that the regular season is over, let's look a the attendance numbers.

Quebec: As expected, good attendance. This was their best average since being in the Can-Am. I don't have numbers when they were in the other league but I suspect it's their highest ever. Also is the third highest in Can-Am history.

Brockton: down 400 from last year. Why? Still, second in league, 1-2 with Quebec once again.

New Jersey: I said earlier they may average 2500. They were at 2162, down 150 from 2008. Not a number I would panic about just yet.

Worcester: down 300 from last year. Another why. Recession?

Sussex: almost 1700, average 18 lower than last year. Nothing to worry about although that's down from 2100 in 2007.

Nashua: a drop of 400 from last year and it wasn't good then. Worst Can-Am attendance ever. If not for New Haven in 2007, they would be at the bottom for the fourth straight year.

Brockton has shown will get people at the park. Not worried by big drop there. Let's see what happens in Worcester next year.

Sussex can likely expect averaging 1700 every year. But that may not be enough in this league.

Have the Defenders played their last game in Nashua?

[Minor League Man]

Now that the regular season is over, let's look a the attendance numbers.

Quebec: As expected, good attendance. This was their best average since being in the Can-Am. I don't have numbers when they were in the other league but I suspect it's their highest ever. Also is the third highest in Can-Am history.

Brockton: down 400 from last year. Why? Still, second in league, 1-2 with Quebec once again.

New Jersey: I said earlier they may average 2500. They were at 2162, down 150 from 2008. Not a number I would panic about just yet.

Worcester: down 300 from last year. Another why. Recession?

Sussex: almost 1700, average 18 lower than last year. Nothing to worry about although that's down from 2100 in 2007.

Nashua: a drop of 400 from last year and it wasn't good then. Worst Can-Am attendance ever. If not for New Haven in 2007, they would be at the bottom for the fourth straight year.

Brockton has shown will get people at the park. Not worried by big drop there. Let's see what happens in Worcester next year.

Sussex can likely expect averaging 1700 every year. But that may not be enough in this league.

Have the Defenders played their last game in Nashua?
I believe the Defenders have officially been evicted, so it's time to play Taps.

Quebec, Brockton, Jersey, and Sussex should be back next year...Not sure about Worcester though...

In addition to Ottawa potentially returning, I say expect at least one other Atlantic League member to jump to Can-Am in 2010...

[OttawaBallFan]

> I believe the Defenders have officially been evicted, so it's time to play Taps.

Taps, funny. Yeah, looks like the Defenders will not return to Nashua unless they settle whatever problems they have. But Worcester? I don't see why you think that.

Right now, I'd put an Ottawa return for 2010 as 90%+ certainty. Newark from the AL is a possibility to jump over.

[ottawasportsfan2010]

> I believe the Defenders have officially been evicted, so it's time to play Taps.

Taps, funny. Yeah, looks like the Defenders will not return to Nashua unless they settle whatever problems they have. But Worcester? I don't see why you think that.

Right now, I'd put an Ottawa return for 2010 as 90%+ certainty. Newark from the AL is a possibility to jump over.

You really beleave the chances are that great ottawa will be back next year.

[GoCyclones!]

Greetings, fans! Some interesting comments here. I've had contact with someone with from the Newark Bears front office who assured me the Bears will NOT be switching leagues. New ownership really wants to try to make it work there. I've also heard rumors that the Atlantic League isn't as certain as they've made up two schedules for 2010 - one with a road team, one without.

Word is Bridgeport Bluefish will play one more year then will be leaving for Northern Virginia. Bridgeport may be an option for Can-Am.

Someone with contact with Miles Wolff tells me that he wants an eight-team league. If that can't be achieved, the league may shut down. Six teams, two of them in trouble already, I'd be concerned. Defenders to Trois Rivieres. Worcester now having to pay fees on their lease + poor attendance, doesn't look promising. Elmira wants a team, although that may be too much mileage. The Phillies are leaving Williamsport in a year; that may be an option.

Another rumor is the Can-Am merging with the Atlantic League and being a short-season "feeder" league for the AL. Interesting proposal. I like this idea.

BallparkDigest.com reports no potential tenant for Ottawa Stadium and gives it an 89 percent chance of facing the wrecking ball within five years.

I hear there's interest in reviving the Atlantic City franchise but the stadium has been vandalized and has just fallen victim of disrepair and neglect. Windows broken, copper wires stripped.

[ottawasportsfan2010]

Greetings, fans! Some interesting comments here. I've had contact with someone with from the Newark Bears front office who assured me the Bears will NOT be switching leagues. New ownership really wants to try to make it work there. I've also heard rumors that the Atlantic League isn't as certain as they've made up two schedules for 2010 - one with a road team, one without.

Word is Bridgeport Bluefish will play one more year then will be leaving for Northern Virginia. Bridgeport may be an option for Can-Am.

Someone with contact with Miles Wolff tells me that he wants an eight-team league. If that can't be achieved, the league may shut down. Six teams, two of them in trouble already, I'd be concerned. Defenders to Trois Rivieres. Worcester now having to pay fees on their lease + poor attendance, doesn't look promising. Elmira wants a team, although that may be too much mileage. The Phillies are leaving Williamsport in a year; that may be an option.

Another rumor is the Can-Am merging with the Atlantic League and being a short-season "feeder" league for the AL. Interesting proposal. I like this idea.

BallparkDigest.com reports no potential tenant for Ottawa Stadium and gives it an 89 percent chance of facing the wrecking ball within five years.

I hear there's interest in reviving the Atlantic City franchise but the stadium has been vandalized and has just fallen victim of disrepair and neglect. Windows broken, copper wires stripped.

There is a group intersted in the ottawa stadium atleast that was a mo nth ago maybe thing have changed.

[OttawaBallFan]

ottawasportsfan2010 asked me:
> You really beleave the chances are that great ottawa will be back next year.

What can I say, I'm optimistic. I admit 90% is high. But I do hear and see good things happening after a summer of dead nothing.

The stadium inquiries are likely David Butler. It could be for the new proposed Super Indie League too.

Thanks for your insight GoCyclones. I agree the Bears thing might be a rumor and just wishful thinking by some. But it has been going on for a year. So has Bridgeport.

Miles Wolff does want an 8-team league. Don't know about shutting down otherwise. He also wants a team in Ottawa as well as Montreal. I don't see why that can't happen. Elmira had a team a few years back. They want to try again?

> Another rumor is the Can-Am merging with the Atlantic League and being a
> short-season "feeder" league for the AL. Interesting proposal.
> I like this idea.

Never heard that one. By feeder, you mean some sort of minor league for the AL? I don't like that.

BallparkDigest takes it's news from the wires. I don't think that they do much research. True that if the stadium sits empty for a couple of years, it will face the wrecking ball. Right now, it could use a gardener with a good heavy duty lawn mower.

Forget Atlantic City from what I hear. That stadium will be torn down.

[GoCyclones!]

Good luck to getting a team in Ottawa. I hope it happens. I don't follow the Can-Am too closely. I'm more NY-Penn and Atlantic League, but the few Can-Am games I've been to, although the crowds are smaller, the fans seem loyal and passionate. I admire that. I'm gonna check out Worcester tomorrow and see if I can find out any info on the team's future.

Ran into Newark Bears team president on Sunday (the same guy who allegedly kicked out three fans for not standing during "God Bless America." As if the Bears can handle the negative press.) and he was very confident the Bears will be back in the AL next year.

As for Elmira, I think they'd be better suited for a NY-Penn team. Too far west. They do want to build a new ballpark I hear.

I think the merge with the AL would be good. It would give the Can-Am strong financial backing, so we don't have to have these "future of the league" conversations every winter. Plus a lot of former major leaguers play in the AL. That talent pool could spill into the Can-Am. But doesn't look likely.

I think they'll be in good shape though. If Ottawa and perhaps a road team are aboard for '10. Replace that with Bridgeport in '11 (would a team in New Haven draw better though?). Worcester is key though. I've read that a new park is supposedly being built, so they may be ok. I'm sure Williamsport would want a team after the NY-Penn League leaves after next year. Although they average 1,800 in the NYP.

No one knows for sure what's gonna happen except for God. But isn't it fun to speculate?

[GoCyclones!]

Hey, I also heard Utica, NY as a possible city. Not a really great market I'd say, but hey

[ca]

where did you hear that and where would they go ?

[OttawaBallFan]

> I think the merge with the AL would be good.

I don't think so. It would mean some teams would move or fold. The AL starts its season in late April, about a month before the Can-Am. One reason we lost the AAA Lynx in Ottawa was because of poor attendance in April-May because of cold weather. If we get another Can-Am team in Ottawa, the same thing would happen if games started in April, the team would move. Same with Quebec with even worse weather at that time of year.

> But isn't it fun to speculate?

Yep. Check last year's posts in this very forum. Nothing I said came true.

The only thing I'm sure of, as said in other thread, there will be franchises coming and going in the next few years. As with the Frontier league, the Can-Am will not be stable. In the long term, a handful of franchises will still be around. Even speculating on which ones is risky business.

[GoCyclones!]

where did you hear that and where would they go ?

I heard a rumor that the Phillies are looking to buy the team and move it to West Chester, PA. So that would make four Phillies affiliates within two hours of Philadelphia. WTF, spread the love!

[OttawaBallFan]

> that would make four Phillies affiliates within two hours of Philadelphia

The trend is for MLB teams to have their high affiliates close by, if they can swing it. One reason you might think is lower transportation costs when they call players up and down. I think that's a silly reason. First because, say the Phillies are playing in Los Angeles and need to call up a player. There is no cost saving flying him from Lehigh Valley or worse if the Pigs are playing the Georgia Braves. The saving would only be when both teams are playing at home. Besides, I don't think teams are thinking about this.

The real reason is to promote the major league team and to some extent the minor league team. I'm sure there are lots of Philly fans in West Chester, so that helps a minor league team there. Those non-Phillies fans may become Phillies fans if they attend their affiliate's games, maybe even make the trek to Philadelphia once a year or buy merchandise. So a win-win for both the parent club and the affiliate. The Lynx were the Orioles affiliate for four years. You occasionally see Orioles gear being worn around town. And it made me follow them during those years. Now imagine the larger impact of having their AA affiliate in Bowie. Actually, four of their six affiliate teams are in Maryland. Their AAA team is in Norfolk less than 200 miles away, the other is a Rookie league team in Bluefield, WV.

[skippy]

Taking your point even further...

At some point, it won't matter affiliate, level, etc.

Teams will be playing the teams that are in their closest geographic cluster.