Magnificent Seven

[Minor League Man]

Today the MLS announced that seven cities had met the application deadline and would be jockeying for one of the two 2011 expansion slots.

The seven candidates are:

Atlanta (owned by Home Depot co-founder and current Falcons owner Arthur Blank)

Miami (owned by FC Barcelona and Brightstar Corporation chairman/CEO/President R. Marcelo Claure)

Montreal (owned by Joey Saputo & George Gillett: Joey Saputo owns Saputo Dairies and the USL-1's Montreal Impact, while Gillett owns the Canadiens, the English Premier League's Liverpool FC, and Gillett-Evernham Motorsports)

Ottawa (owned by Senators & St. Michael's Majors owner Eugene Melnyk)

Portland (owned by Timbers & Beavers owner Merritt Paulson)

St. Louis (ownership group led by Jeff Cooper, who's been trying to get a team in STL for a LOOOOONG time-has a WPS team there right now)

Vancouver (owned by Whitecaps owner Greg Kerfoot, NBA star Steve Nash, and former Yahoo! president and current San Francisco Giants owner Jeff Mallett)

So, which two do you think will get in? Looking forward to seeing your votes!

[Pounder]

Evaluations... which, BTW, I would consider unsettled. This will evolve over the next couple months.

First off, one of the owners in Philadelphia had their stock holding go from $200 million to $4 million. There are rumors from semi-reputable sites that Philadelphia's scheduled 2010 expansion may end up mothballing. The Philly people are disputing that, while Miami and Montreal seem to be positioning to pounce on that. This clearly throws a wrinkle into the current process.

As for the candidates...

Atlanta - Blank runs Home Depot. He paid the league to put his name on Home Depot Center when the league wasn't in as good a condition, so there's a thought that MLS owes him. Thing is, there's no concrete stadium plan, just a bunch of suggestions being thrown around greater Atlanta. Furthermore, it is the South, MLS is a summer league, that math doesn't compute. I think this is a placeholder for the next round, but it could well be the surprise lob from the halfway line.

Miami - FC Barcelona's making a big splash, including a near-immediate insistence that they should start up in 2010. The real money here is the Bolivian investor. They're thinking to share at Florida International University's new football stadium until the supposedly promised Miami stadium (near the old Orange Bowl site) is completed. I thought that stadium proposal was taken off the table. That doesn't compute, nor does the liberal leanings of FC Barcelona versus Phil Anschutz and his conservative agenda. They provide the bombast in this race, but I don't think they'll have the votes.

Montreal - This should be a sitter of a bid. New stadium just opened this year, it has room to expand beyond the near 13,000 capacity, and the Impact are the attendance champions this year (at least in announced attendance) AND are making quite the run in the CONCACAF Champions Cup. Many say the stadium is kind of spartan for amenities, however, with MLS perhaps insisting on substantial improvements. There are rumors, however, that this bid is underfunded, that Joey Saputo wants to lowball MLS, and that George Gillett may not really be contributing funds to the effort. I've picked up the impression that Gillett won't have the liquid money until he is able to sell his Liverpool share, which he's been trying to do, but runs into difficulty because any new owners will likely be on the hook for the new Liverpool stadium. Saputo has been known to badmouth MLS in the past. This should be a top 3 bid at worst, but I'm not sure they can close the deal.

Ottawa - I hear Melnyk is trying to scuttle replacement plans for Frank Clair Stadium with this proposal, that it is about anything but soccer. If he is seeking public funds, it won't happen. More to the point, when MLS had a hard time finding expansion cities several years ago, that's when Salt Lake snuck in the door. The Ottawa market is smaller than the Salt Lake market. Melnyk is filling numbers unless the crash decimates the field.

Portland - All PGE Park- a downtown site- needs is east-side seating (part of the $40 million proposed for stadium renovation) and a new home for the baseball Beavers. Paulson has a definite name cache to work with (Dad signs your money, America), OR it has picked up some slime along the way (Dad authored the bailout). The current Timbers grew attendance by more than 25% this year for the worst team in the league... making them second in USL-1 (and judging from overcounts in Montreal, there's suspicion that Portland has better drop counts). The problems- the city usually doesn't hand out money for stadiums unless the owner contributes a significant chunk, and while Paulson appears to be dealing, I'm not sure he has a lot to deal with. MLS will have a full PGE Park if they expand to Portland (and I think they want Portland), but the moving parts to this adventure will define the race.

St. Louis - This sports a FUNDED stadium deal, though the mixed-use development that helps fund stadium costs could well be a victim of the crash, making the venture iffy. The ownership HAS been questioned by MLS in the past, but Cooper is believed to have found someone that passes league muster. Thing is, he doesn't identify the other investor(s) publically. The history of soccer in the market is quite strong, though they've hardly shown the capacity to keep professional teams there. MLS has made whispers that they want St. Louis in this time, and the stadium plan makes it an obvious choice. The question is whether the obvious is a mirage.

Vancouver - Possibly the best investor set of the bunch, mostly sporting Greg Kerfoot, who has been trying to build a stadium along the waterfront for the Whitecaps with his own money. The fan base was clearly there for NASL and CSL, and they generally draw well for USL-1... the market likes its soccer, and there's not the anti-soccer bias exhibited elsewhere. The problem: Kerfoot tried to whiz on the Wheaties of the Port of Vancouver with his stadium siting. There was insufficient adjustment, strangely, before BC Place offered Kerfoot a deal to play there. There's a process being negotiated to replace the roof of that stadium, but I highly doubt it will be ready by 2011, and BC Place is too large and apparently not rent-friendly to the long-term survival of an MLS team. This IS a top 3 choice (St. Louis, Portland, Vancouver), but with MLS, the stadium equation matters a lot.

[wellington]

Pounder -- great breakdown on the MLS expansion situation. Like you said, the state of the economy could change everything. Its amazing how quickly things have changed in a few short months -- I think that tougher economic times are still ahead.

[Pounder]

Montreal dropped out... as announced by Don Garber in his Friday night speech.

While Garber praised the Ottawa and Vancouver bids, he also hinted that Canadian sponsorships weren't coming in as well as they'd like... take that as you will.

The Canadians- and Miami and Portland- were represented at meetings last week during MLS Cup. This probably caused a NY Times blogger to suggest that Atlanta and St. Louis were considering pulling out, based on their non-participation. Take that as far as you can throw it, I'd think.

[wellington]

Portland's odds are looking better by the day. Who nows what is going on behind the scenes, but Portland has so much going for it -- soccer heritage, established fanbase, rivalry with Seattle, further expansion of league footprint in Pacific NW... The league would be dumb to pass up on Portland. I think they can work around the stadium situation.

What's the latest with Philly?

[Minor League Man]

Portland's odds are looking better by the day. Who nows what is going on behind the scenes, but Portland has so much going for it -- soccer heritage, established fanbase, rivalry with Seattle, further expansion of league footprint in Pacific NW... The league would be dumb to pass up on Portland. I think they can work around the stadium situation.

What's the latest with Philly?
Philly just broke ground on their new stadium yesterday. So I'd say they're still a go for 2010.

[Pounder]

http://www.the107report.libsyn.com

In here, you will find an interview conducted this week with Don Garber, who was in Portland to present the league's case to a task force conducted to explore stadium issues (and ways to mitigate costs) and schmooze with area business leaders.

The points of note:

Don probably quashes the rumors of more than two expansion teams being added.

The issue of MLS being adidas-sponsored and Miami's Barcelona support (a very Nike team), is characterized by Garber as "something we'd have to work through." Nike and the American headquarters of adidas are both located in the Portland area, so these questions are often on the minds of those who think to ask. Conclusion: Barcelona's presence is not a help to the Miami bid.

[Pounder]

And then there were 5. Atlanta is out. Arthur Blank apparently didn't start talking to landowners and colleges and other possible stadium site hawkers until after he bid. Oops. Not the biggest seismic shock, however, since Blank never put up a website and was never really publically forthcoming about his plans.

Now I REALLY feel for the Silverbacks fans, though the ones I know elsewhere already seemed to see through the ruse for that closure.

[Pounder]

Miami is out.

http://www.oursportscentral.com/services/releases/?id=3784893

Having a business model based on an aging David Beckham- in another city- not quite a smart idea.

Portland, St. Louis, Vancouver... and Ottawa as filler. Could be an all Cascadian selection at this point.

A Portland-generated task force voted unanimously to recommend the stadium package to the city council, with conditions that are currently being hashed out in negotiations. The council votes next week on the package resulting from the negotiations.

[Minor League Man]

Miami is out.

http://www.oursportscentral.com/services/releases/?id=3784893

Having a business model based on an aging David Beckham- in another city- not quite a smart idea.

Portland, St. Louis, Vancouver... and Ottawa as filler. Could be an all Cascadian selection at this point.

A Portland-generated task force voted unanimously to recommend the stadium package to the city council, with conditions that are currently being hashed out in negotiations. The council votes next week on the package resulting from the negotiations.
1. TRUTH right there. Especially since Beckham's likely going to stay with AC Milan and not come back to the MLS. But even so, there are 164 other quality starters in MLS, so let's not risk having it be a "one-man league"...doomed from the start.

2. In my POV, Vancouver is a lock to get that MLS team. Considering the competition, I think they have the strongest shot yet. Portland is also a GREAT choice, with strong support for their USL-1 team, one of the better "owners" in sports (see that quote in your sig), and the stadium looking like it'll go smoother than I thought at first.

3. Seattle has already proven (before its inaugural season kicks off) that it can handle the big leagues (Sounders FC is a bigger season-ticket seller than the Mariners this year!) Bringing the Cascadia Cup to MLS will only make it stronger. Also, we don't need to wait a year for the name to be chosen; the owners will most likely go with a professionalized version of their USL identities (Whitecaps FC and Timbers FC will work very well).

4. You haven't heard the last of Atlanta, Miami, Montreal, Ottawa, and St. Louis' quests for MLS yet! The league is expected to accept two more teams for 2013, so expect to see this happen all over again in two years (likely joined by such cities as Las Vegas, Long Island, Detroit, Phoenix, Minnesota, Cleveland, and maybe a few others)

[NWsportsfan]

Well now that the 2010 teams have been made official, and there is now talk of possibly two more for 2012: Which do you think would make the newest cut?

[NWsportsfan]

Well, it looks like my question has been answered in part: Montreal in 2012. Interesting to see who joins Montreal with rumors being either Atlanta or a city in Florida.

[Pounder]

Interesting on the rumor... because Don Garber went into some detail about trying to get a franchise into New York City... and I mean the good old five boroughs, not Harrison, not Long Island.

Will MLS sell their soul to get there?

Atlanta and Florida have no basis to get a team back without somehow convincing the league to go to a winter schedule. The crowds just haven't followed when MLS tried down south. St. Louis actually draws for USSF D2 right now, the team controls St. Louis Soccer Park, something could be done for not a lot of cost there.

[NWsportsfan]

The rumor concerning the Southeast-based team was only out there briefly before Commissioner Garber announced his intention of New York team number two. As for the other idea, having AC St. Louis in MLS would give KC a natural rival. Good idea indeed.