Rapidz 2009

[summerfan]

I don't think there is much hope for this year in terms off on field.Now what changes are needed for next year to improve this team.

[Brockton Boomer]

The best thing you could do is get rid of Nootle

[OttawaBallFan]

The Rapidz need more power. They will not find it this year. More speed would help too. These guys are slooooow.

Expect only a handful of guys to be back in 2009. So basically, a whole new team next year.

[OttawaBallFan]

Bill James once said that the biggest indicator of a team's success is how often its lead-off hitter gets on base. James was right. Here are the average number of runs scored by the Rapidz in different situations:

Lead-off hitter doesn't get on base: 3.2 (11 games)
On base only once: 4.0 (14 games)
On base twice: 4.3 (11 games)
On base three or more times: 7.0 (8 games)

So it would make sense to put your high OBA guy at the top of the lineup. Ed Nottle has used three lead-off hitters so far:

Jared Lemieux, 19 games, team scored 3.8 runs per game, record 4-15.
Jose de los Santos, 20 games, 5.3, 7-13
Juan Infante, 5 games, 3.2, 2-3

Infante has a .309 OBA. Lemieux is now at .355 but was worse when he was leading off. De los Santos is not bad at .350, helped by his almost .300 average. Doesn't Nottle see what is going on? Does he not realize the team is not scoring by having Lemieux and now, even worse, de los Santos at the top of the lineup? It's only five games but that includes last night's 8 runs which would bring the average down to 2.0 if we exclude it.

So who should lead off? Glad you asked. Here's my Rapidz lineup:

Jabe Bergeron, .429 OBA, also best slugger on the team. He started the year in third spot but in cleanup position since early June. I understand that the "conventional wisdom" says to put this type of player in 3rd or 4th. But in this case, conventional wisdom is wrong. We don't hit for power anyway so maximize the number of runs your team will score by putting the guy that gets on base at the top. That means Jabe should lead off.

Jose De los Santos. This is where Nottle has it right. Hits for average, low strikeouts (only 7 in 187 AB!).

Jared Lemieux. After some thought, and seeing how he has improved since not being the leadoff hitter, Jared might do very well here.

Jereme Milons. Other than Bergeron, our next power threat, although he, Lemieux and Geiger have similar slugging numbers. Ed has it right by batting him third but maybe if Lemieux was ahead of him, it might be good for Jared and the team.

Batting fifth, Kyle Geiger, where he has been most of season. Must get more rest however from catching duties.

The rest of the lineup is pretty much a crapshoot. New guys Dumouchel and Daubert have played as did Scotty McKnight but only because Bergeron and Pirman are hurt. McKnight and Dumouchel have not looked good in the outfield. I would put Jose Salas in ninth however as he is the better of the rest of this bunch.

Dumouchel is the more experienced and could be a good fit in sixth spot. When Pirman is back, I think I would put him ninth but Ed has had him all over the place from 4th to 9th. He realized he wasn't going to be the power hitter he was that one year.

[jackalsfan]

I feel that many people who look at the standings think that this team is extrememly bad. Not this case. This team plays hard and put up good games. The only problem is that the opponent is a bit better in 30+ games. Suprisingly, I would say with a few moves in the offeseason, the Rapidz may be a contender in 2009.

http://myjackals.com/ --- Fan Site Of The New Jersey Jackals

[titanium]

Good comments OBF & jackals fan.

I suspect, but certainly could be wrong, that Ed Nottle is "old school" & not a Bill James believer, thus explaining his lineup. However, i agree it would be nice to see how the team would do with Bergeron batting 1st.

I agree that this team is better than it's record indicates. Having said that, it needs a tremendous overhaul for next year. I would like to see the following players back: Bergeron, Milons, Geigher, Lemieux, de los Santos, Kusiewicz, Robinson, Burrows, Baca & Hawes. I suspect Geiger will be picked up by a major league organization for next year - maybe the Twins will want him back.

Disappointments for me this year have been Infante, Pirman,
Salas (now released), & Bunn. There are others that have not performed well also, however, their expectations were much lower in my opinion. Infante has been my biggest disappointment. I suspect he is not the player he was when drafted a few years ago by the Expos. Apparantly he was out of baseball last year. His fielding has been poor for the most part & he has been weak at the plate. His strong point is that he really hustles down to first when bunting. The effort is there. He would be a good utility infielder.

I expect a much better team next year. I think the personnel will be better. Whether that translates into many more wins is another matter. But with the low number so far this year it should.

[OttawaBallFan]

> Ed Nottle is "old school" & not a Bill James believer

I'm sure you are correct. He probably never heard of James. But if I had a chance to talk to him for an hour, I'd say, "Look Ed, 100 years of data and research say you should put Bergeron at lead-off".

BTW, Bergeron has 2 home runs so far tonight. Pirman has one too in first game back and Geiger has one too against the Pride. Oops, Pirman just hit his second tonight as I write this. Maybe he found his power back.

BTW #2, I have yet to hear from our Anonymous friend on the blog we both frequent.

We'll see about Geiger, although I'd like to keep him.

[moxie]

I am pretty happy having Bergeron in the 4th/5th spot following Lemieux, De los Santos, and Milons. McKnight is a great first pitch hitter, too, but for some reason opposition infielders are constantly making ridiculous catches on him. :mrgreen:

I like Geiger as a catcher, a lot, but I haven't been too impressed with him in the batting order.

P.S. For anyone who may be interested, there is now an Ottawa Rapidz Forum located at: Http://www.rapidzfans.yuku.com

[OttawaBallFan]

Hey, Moxie, welcome to the board.

I would be happy with Bergeron too in 4-5th if we had a decent lead-off hitter. BTW, Infante seems to be the guy for the last dozen games. Lemieux had been back at the top of the lineup for the first 20 or so games, then de Los Santos, Infante, Lemieux again for 6 games and Infante again.

I'll check out your Yuku Rapidz forum. I knew of a Can-Am forum but there's hardly any activity there and why I come here.

For those who don't know, there is a Rapidz blog at
www.ottawarapidz.blogspot.com and I frequently post comments there as Pierre L.

As for my previous post a couple of days ago, I have an opportunity - indirectly - to ask Nottle about having heard of Bill James. Louis-Simon on CJRC is asking for people to email him comments and questions for the players and Nottle. I sent mine in if he has heard of James, sabermetrics and why not put Bergeron as the lead-off hitter. LS mentioned receiving my email on the air and that he would indeed ask my question. Unfortunately, I may not hear the answer as he will do so during home games and I attend every game.